Despite decades of research, the roles of climate and humans in driving the dramatic extinctions of large-bodied mammals during the Late Quaternary remain contentious. We use ancient DNA, species distribution models and the human fossil record to elucidate how climate and humans shaped the demographic history of woolly rhinoceros, woolly mammoth, wild horse, reindeer, bison and musk ox. We show that climate has been a major driver of population change over the past 50,000 years. However, each species responds differently to the effects of climatic shifts, habitat redistribution and human encroachment. Although climate change alone can explain the extinction of some species, such as Eurasian musk ox and woolly rhinoceros, a combination of climatic and anthropogenic effects appears to be responsible for the extinction of others, including Eurasian steppe bison and wild horse. We find no genetic signature or any distinctive range dynamics distinguishing extinct from surviving species, underscoring the challenges associated with predicting future responses of extant mammals to climate and human-mediated habitat change.

This paper presents 75 new radiocarbon dates based on late Quaternary mammal remains recovered from eastern Taimyr Peninsula and adjacent parts of the northern Siberian lowlands, Russian Federation, including specimens of woolly mammoth (Mammuthus primigenius), steppe bison (Bison priscus), muskox (Ovibos moschatus), moose (Alces alces), reindeer (Rangifer tarandus), horse (Equus caballus) and wolf (Canis lupus). New evidence permits reanalysis of megafaunal extinction dynamics in the Asian high Arctic periphery. Increasingly, radiometric records of individual species show evidence of a gap at or near the Pleistocene/Holocene boundary (PHB). In the past, the PHB gap was regarded as significant only when actually terminal, i.e., when it marked the apparent ''last'' occurrence of a species (e.g., current ''last'' occurrence date for woolly mammoth in mainland Eurasia is 9600 yr ). However, for high Arctic populations of horses and muskoxen the gap marks an interruption rather than extinction, because their radiocarbon records resume, nearly simultaneously, much later in the Holocene. Taphonomic effects, C 14 flux, and biased sampling are unlikely explanations for these hiatuses. A possible explanation is that the gap is the signature of an event, of unknown nature, that prompted the nearly simultaneous crash of many megafaunal populations in the high Arctic and possibly elsewhere in Eurasia.

Near the end of the Pleistocene epoch, populations of the woolly mammoth (Mammuthus primigenius) were distributed across parts of three continents, from western Europe and northern Asia through Beringia to the Atlantic seaboard of North America. Nonetheless, questions about the connectivity and temporal continuity of mammoth populations and species remain unanswered. We use a combination of targeted enrichment and high-throughput sequencing to assemble and interpret a data set of 143 mammoth mitochondrial genomes, sampled from fossils recovered from across their Holarctic range. Our dataset includes 54 previously unpublished mitochondrial genomes and significantly increases the coverage of the Eurasian range of the species. The resulting global phylogeny confirms that the Late Pleistocene mammoth population comprised three distinct mitochondrial lineages that began to diverge ~1.0–2.0 million years ago (Ma). We also find that mammoth mitochondrial lineages were strongly geographically partitioned throughout the Pleistocene. In combination, our genetic results and the pattern of morphological variation in time and space suggest that male-mediated gene flow, rather than large-scale dispersals, was important in the Pleistocene evolutionary history of mammoths.

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