The current coronavirus pandemic is an unprecedented public health challenge that is having a devastating economic impact on households. Using a sample of 230,540 respondents to an online survey from 17 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, the study shows that the economic impacts are large and unequal: 45 percent of respondents report that a household member has lost their job and, among households owning small businesses, 59 percent of respondents report that a household member has closed their business. Among households with the lowest income prior to the pandemic, 71 percent report that a household member lost their job and 61 percent report that a household member has closed their business. Declines in food security and health are among the disproportionate impacts. The findings provide evidence that the current public health crisis will exacerbate economic inequality and provides some of the first estimates of the impact of the pandemic on the labor market and well-being in developing countries.

No abstract

Access to identification cards (IDs) is often required to claim government benefits. However, it is unclear which policies to increase ID ownership are more effective. We experimentally analyze the effect of two policy interventions to induce the timely renewal of identification cards on access to a government social program in Panama. Sending reminders about expiration dates increased the probability of on-time renewals and of accessing benefits from a social program by 12 and 4.3 percentage points, respectively, relative to a control group. In contrast, allowing individuals to renew their ID online only increased renewals and access to benefits by 8 and 2.9 percentage points, respectively. This result was driven by lower-income individuals. The results suggest that policies to increase ownership of valid identity documentation can reduce inclusion errors in government programs and that simply granting access to digital tools may not be enough to unlock important effects.

La crisis desencadenada por el brote del COVID-19 trajo consigo un desafío fundamental para las redes de protección social: entregar beneficios rápidamente a aquellos hogares que más lo necesitan. En este documento presentamos los resultados de la evaluación de Ingreso Solidario en Colombia, un programa de transferencias monetaria no condicionadas dirigido a hogares pobres y vulnerables que no se beneficiaban de los programas preexistentes a la pandemia. La evaluación se realiza mediante el método de regresión discontinua en el que se comparan distintos indicadores de bienestar entre hogares elegibles y no elegibles alrededor del punto de corte que determina la elegibilidad, basado en un puntaje que aproxima el ingreso del hogar. Es decir, se enfoca en un subgrupo de hogares con ingresos relativamente más altos que los del beneficiario promedio del programa. Encontramos que Ingreso Solidario incrementó la probabilidad de que los hogares mantengan alguna fuente de ingreso y que no generó desincentivos a la participación en el mercado laboral. Encontramos también que Ingreso Solidario incrementó el gasto en educación de los hogares y la probabilidad de hacer gastos en artículos de limpieza. No encontramos evidencia de efectos sobre el consumo de alimentos en promedio, pero encontramos efectos heterogéneos basados en la severidad de las disrupciones laborales que afectaron a los hogares durante la pandemia: el programa incrementó el consumo de alimentos en los hogares que perdieron una mayor parte de ingresos. Finalmente, encontramos que el programa incentivó la apertura de nuevas cuentas bancarias e incrementó el uso de estas para realizar pagos, sugiriendo que el programa puede generar importantes efectos en inclusión financiera a largo plazo.

The current coronavirus pandemic is an unprecedented public health challenge that is having a devastating economic impact on households. Using a sample of 230,540 respondents to an online survey from 17 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, the study shows that the economic impacts are large and unequal: 45 percent of respondents report that a household member has lost their job and, among households owning small businesses, 59 percent of respondents report that a household member has closed their business. Among households with the lowest income prior to the pandemic, 71 percent report that a household member lost their job and 61 percent report that a household member has closed their business. Declines in food security and health are among the disproportionate impacts. The findings provide evidence that the current public health crisis will exacerbate economic inequality and provides some of the first estimates of the impact of the pandemic on the labor market and well-being in developing countries.