Capturing financial network linkages and contagion in stress test models are important goals for banking supervisors and central banks responsible for micro-and macroprudential policy. However, granular data on financial networks is often lacking, and instead the networks must be reconstructed from partial data. In this paper, we conduct a horse race of network reconstruction methods using network data obtained from 25 different markets spanning 13 jurisdictions. Our contribution is two-fold: first, we collate and analyze data on a wide range of financial networks. And second, we rank the methods in terms of their ability to reconstruct the structures of links and exposures in networks.
Résumé: Afin d'analyser les effets systémiques de la thésaurisation des banques sur la stabilité d'un réseau financier, cet article propose un nouveau modèle de contagion bancaire. Cette dernière estétudiée suivant deux canaux : les expositions bilatérales directes entreétablissements de crédit et les difficultés de financementà court-terme auxquelles les banques peuventéventuellement faire face si une crise de confiance vientà se matérialiser (comportement préventif de thésaurisation). En s'inspirant du rôle majeur joué par la thésaurisation pendant la crise financière de 2007-2009, le modèle développé dans cet article se distingue du traditionnel algorithme séquentiel de calcul de défauts en cascade largementévoqué et employé dans la littérature sur le risque systémique pour mesurer les effets d'un choc de marché sur l'ensemble d'un systme bancaire, en introduisant le comportement de thésaurisation des banques. Au-delà de la simple contagion via les expositions bilatérales, un tel phénoméne initié par certaines banques peut entraîner des problèmes de financementà court-terme pour d'autres. En s'appuyant sur les données d'expositions bilatérales des banques francaises collectées par l'Autorité de Contrôle Prudentiel, le secteur bancaire francais sembleêtre relativement robuste lorsqu'il està la fois soumisà un risque de marché (pertes sur les actifs de marché détenus par les banques dans leur portefeuille) et aux effets induits de la contagion par insolvabilité et par difficulté de financementà court-terme. Les résultats obtenus en termes de poids relatifs de chacun des canaux de contagionétudiés sur les pertes totales estimées mettent en exergue le caractère fondamental et complexe des effets de la thésaurisation.Mots-clés: Thésaurisation, contagion par insolvabilité et par difficulté de financement, réseaux financiers, risque systémique JEL classification: G01, G21, G28Abstract: We investigate the consequences of banks' liquidity hoarding behaviour for the stability of the financial system by proposing a new model of banking contagion through two channels, bilateral exposures and funding shortage. Inspired by the key role of liquidity hoarding in the 2007-2009 financial crisis, we incorporate banks' hoarding behaviour in a standard Iterative Default Cascade algorithm to compute the propagation of a common market shock through a banking system. In addition to potential solvency contagion, a market shock leads to banks liquidity hoarding that may generate problems of short-term funding for other banks. As an empirical exercise, we apply this model to the French banking system. Relying on data on banks bilateral exposures collected by France' Prudential Supervisory Authority, the French banking sector appears resilient to the combination of an initial market shock (losses on marked-to-market assets) and the resulting solvency and liquidity contagion. Moreover, the model gauges the relative weight of the various factors in the total loss.
on access to and use of certain TARGET2 data. The Banque de France and the PSSC have checked the paper against the rules for guaranteeing the confidentiality of transaction-level data imposed by the PSSC pursuant to Article 1(4) of the above mentioned issue. The views expressed in the paper are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the Banque de France or of the Eurosystem.
We study the substitution between secured and unsecured interbank markets. Banks are competitive and subject to reserve requirements in a corridor rate system with deposit and lending facilities. Banks face counterparty risk in the unsecured market and incur an opportunity cost to pledge collateral. The model provides insights on interest rates, trading volumes and substitution between the two markets. Using transaction data on the Euro money market, we provide new empirical findings that the model accounts for: (i) borrowing banks are active on both markets even when their collateral constraint is not binding, (ii) secured interest rates may fall below the deposit facility rate. We derive and empirically test predictions on how "conventional" and "unconventional" monetary policies impact interbank markets, depending on whether marketable collateral is purchased or not.
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