в 2017 г. прогноз эпизоотической активности 11 природных очагов чумы на территории российской Федерации полностью оправдался [6]. эпизоотии чумы зарегистрированы на территории горно

Objective – analysis of epizootiological manifestations of natural focal infections in the territory of the south of the European part of the Russian Federation in 2017.Materials and methods. Statistical documentation data from the Rospotrebnadzor Administrations, Centers of Hygiene and Epidemiology in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, and Plague Control Research Institutes and Stations were used. The information was processed using Microsoft Excel 2010 software.Results and discussion. Epizootiological survey for 19 nosological forms of natural focal infections in the territory of the south of the European part of the Russian Federation was conducted. The total of 70155 samples of field material was tested; markers of 14 pathogens of natural focal infections were identified. The circulation of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus was revealed in 11 constituent entities, tularemia and Lyme borreliosis pathogens – in 8 entities, West Nile virus – in 7. Markers of leptospirosis, Q fever, human granulocytic anaplasmosis and human monocytic ehrlichiosis pathogens were detected in 6 constituent entities, markers of the agent of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome – in 5 entities; markers of intestinal yersiniosis pathogen – in 3 constituent entities of the Russian Federation, pathogens of tick spotted fevers group, tick-borne viral encephalitis and pseudotuberculosis – in 2. The circulation of the virus Sindbis was identified in the Rostov Region.

Central-Caucasian natural plague focus was permanently epizootically active since its discovering in 1971 till 2007. Inter-epizootic period has been in progress since 2008. It was not possible to isolate agent strains from field material. Therefore a forecast for focus activation is a relevant task, especially against the background of registered plague cases in humans in 2014–2016. Objective of the study was to create a forecasting model for quantitative prediction of possible activation or maintenance of inter-epizootic period. Materials and methods. We used archival data of Kabardino-Balkar Plague Control Station: journals of rodents’ autopsy, annual reports on epizootiological surveillance, meteorological data from meteostation “Kislovodsk” over the period of 1989–2017, and our epidemiological data for the period 2010 to 2017. We applied Spearman nonparametric correlation analysis, regression analysis, including principal component method, quarterly analysis, and inhomogeneous sequential pattern recognition procedures for statistical processing. Results and discussion. We have designed statistical model which provides for forecasting of plague focus epizootic activity proactively, a year in advance and 99 % probability or higher. The model was tested on retrospective data over the course of 7 years. All predictions were correct. The operational forecasts from 2015 to 2017 proved right too. However there is a possibility of fast changes in the ecology system conditions of the Central-Caucasian natural plague focus because of the global warming. Thereby the forecasting model will be annually checked for informative value of the predictors and, if necessary, adjusted accordingly.

целью исследования явилась оценка современной эпизоотологической обстановки по туляремии в ставропольском крае. материалы и методы. обработаны данные лабораторных исследований полевого материала за 2010-2017 гг. биологическим методом и пцр. результаты и обсуждение. представлен анализ эпизоотологической обстановки за 2010-2017 гг. в ставропольском крае. установлен видовой состав и численность основных носителей туляремии в изучаемый период. эпизоотическую активность очага определяют мыши рода Sylvaemus. представлены данные о выделении штаммов от иксодовых клещей, мелких млекопитающих и объектов внешней среды. зараженность возбудителем туляремии обнаружена у семи видов млекопитающих: малая лесная мышь (S. uralensis), обыкновенная полевка (Microtus arvalis), общественная полевка (M. socialis), домовая мышь (Mus musculus), малая белозубка (Crocidura suaveolens), южный еж (Erinaceus roumanicus), заяц-русак (Lepus europaeus). за период проведения эпизоотологического мониторинга в 2010-2017 гг. изолировано 37 штаммов возбудителя туляремии, в том числе от мелких млекопитающих-12 (32,4 %), эктопаразитов-9 (24,3 %), из объектов внешней среды-16 (43,2 %). все выделенные штаммы идентифицированы как Francisella tularensis holarctica биовар II, ery R .

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