This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate. This paper examines the current level of central bank independence (CBI) and transparency in a broad sample of countries using newly constructed measures, and looks at the evolution in both measures from an earlier time period. Increases in CBI have tended to occur in more democratic countries and in countries with high levels of past inflation. More independent central banks in turn tend to be more transparent, while transparency is also positively correlated with measures of national institutional quality. Exploiting the time dimension of our data to eliminate country fixed effects and using instrumental variable estimation to overcome endogeneity concerns, we present evidence that greater CBI is associated with lower inflation. We also find that enhanced transparency practices are associated with the private sector making greater use of information provided by the central bank.JEL Classification Numbers: E42, E44, E52, E58
The past two decades have seen enormous changes in central banks and their practices. In some countries, older institutions have been fundamentally restructured. In other, such as the countries of the former Soviet Union, entirely new central banks have been established. The member countries of the European Union have created a supranational central bank that oversees a monetary union. In all of these situations, central bank law was either revised or written de novo , while institutional objectives, practices, and structures were amended or created from scratch. In this article, we survey and quantify the trends in two major areas of central bank governance: independence and transparency. We document the steady progress toward greater central bank independence and transparency in a large number of industrial and developing countries over the past 10 to 15 years and discuss the effects of these aspects of governance on inflation. Finally, we touch on committee structure and decision making.
When central banks are transparent about their decision making, there may be clear benefits in terms of credibility, policy effectiveness, and improved democratic accountability. While recent literature has focused on all of these advantages of transparency, in this paper we consider one potential cost: the possibility that publishing detailed records of deliberations will make members of a monetary policy committee more reluctant to offer dissenting opinions. Drawing on the recent literature on expert advisors with "career concerns", we construct a model that compares incentives for members of a monetary policy committee to voice dissent when deliberations occur in public, and when they occur in private. We then test the implications of the model using an original dataset based on deliberations of the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee, asking whether the FOMC's decision in 1993 to begin releasing full transcripts of its meetings has altered incentives for participants to voice dissenting opinions. We find this to be the case with regard to both opinions on shortterm interest rates and on the "bias" for future policy.
The total number of possible responses was 1,225, reflecting the total number of FOMC meetings attended by 35 policymakers over the sample period. 1 0 1 19 Thornton and Wheelock (2000) suggest that the Chairman has more leeway to adjust interest rates during the intermeeting period under an asymmetric directive than under a symmetric directive.
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