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BackgroundThe question about what risk function should be used in primary prevention remains unanswered. The Framingham Study proposed a new algorithm based on three key ideas: use of the four risk factors with the most weight (cholesterol, blood pressure, diabetes and smoking), prediction of overall cardiovascular diseases and incorporating the concept of vascular age. The objective of this study was to apply this new function in a cohort of the general non Anglo-Saxon population, with a 10-year follow-up to determine its validity.MethodsThe cohort was studied in 1992-94 and again in 2004-06. The sample comprised 959 randomly-selected persons, aged 30-74 years, who were representative of the population of Albacete, Spain. At the first examination cycle, needed data for the new function were collected and at the second examination, data on all events were recorded during the follow-up period. Discrimination was studied with ROC curves. Comparisons of prediction models and reality in tertiles (Hosmer-Lemeshow) were performed, and the individual survival functions were calculated.ResultsThe mean risks for women and men, respectively, were 11.3% and 19.7% and the areas under the ROC curve were 0.789 (95%CI, 0.716-0.863) and 0.780 (95%CI, 0.713-0.847) (P<0.001, both). Cardiovascular disease events occurred in the top risk tertiles. Of note were the negative predictive values in both sexes, and a good specificity in women (85.6%) and sensitivity in men (79.1%) when their risk for cardiovascular disease was high. This model overestimates the risk in older women and in middle-aged men. The cumulative probability of individual survival by tertiles was significant in both sexes (P<0.001).ConclusionsThe results support the proposal for “reclassification” of Framingham. This study, with a few exceptions, passed the test of discrimination and calibration in a random sample of the general population from southern Europe.

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Neurologic complications following stem cell transplantation are of utmost importance owing to their high morbimortality. Although many studies have been performed in the adult population, reports in children are scarce. Our objective was to determine the most common neurologic complications in a pediatric population and to analyze possible risk factors for their development. We performed an exploratory retrospective study of neurologic complications in pediatric patients who had allogeneic stem cell transplantation over the last 18 years. We identified 66 neurologic complications in 178 allogeneic stem cell transplantations. The most frequent neurologic complications were those involving the peripheral nervous system and those related to drug toxicity. Survival decreased significantly in the presence of neurologic complications. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that independent risk factors for developing neurologic complications were development of chronic extensive graft-vs-host disease requiring treatment, cytomegalovirus reactivation, and central nervous system radiation. Prompt diagnosis and preemptive treatment, if possible, are necessary to avoid long-term sequelae or mortality.