Outmigration survival of acoustic-tagged, hatchery-origin, late-fall-run Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) smolts from the Sacramento River was estimated for 5 years (2007–2011) using a receiver array spanning the entire outmigration corridor, from the upper river, through the estuary, and into the coastal ocean. The first 4 years of releases occurred during below-average river flows, while the fifth year (2011) occurred during above-average flows. In 2011, overall outmigration survival was two to five times higher than survival in the other 4 years. Regional survival estimates indicate that most of the improved survival seen in 2011 occurred in the riverine reaches of the outmigration corridor, while survival in the brackish portions of the estuary did not significantly differ among the 5 years. For the 4 low-flow years combined, survival rate in the river was lower in the less anthropogenically modified upper reaches; however, across all regions, survival rate was lowest in the brackish portion of the estuary. Even in the high-flow year, outmigration survival was substantially lower than yearling Chinook salmon populations in other large rivers. Potential drivers of these patterns are discussed, including channelization, water flow, and predation. Finally, management strategies are suggested to best exploit survival advantages described in this study.

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