Marine fisheries management strives to maintain sustainable populations while allowing exploitation. However, well-intentioned management plans may not meet this balance as most do not include the effect of climate change. Ocean temperatures are expected to increase through the 21st century, which will have far-reaching and complex impacts on marine fisheries. To begin to quantify these impacts for one coastal fishery along the east coast of the United States, we develop a coupled climate-population model for Atlantic croaker (Micropogonias undulatus). The model is based on a mechanistic hypothesis: recruitment is determined by temperature-driven, overwinter mortality of juveniles in their estuarine habitats. Temperature forecasts were obtained from 14 general circulation models simulating three CO2 emission scenarios. An ensemble-based approach was used in which a multimodel average was calculated for a given CO2 emission scenario to forecast the response of the population. The coupled model indicates that both exploitation and climate change significantly affect abundance and distribution of Atlantic croaker. At current levels of fishing, the average (2010-2100) spawning biomass of the population is forecast to increase by 60-100%. Similarly, the center of the population is forecast to shift 50 100 km northward. A yield analysis, which is used to calculate benchmarks for fishery management, indicates that the maximum sustainable yield will increase by 30 100%. Our results demonstrate that climate effects on fisheries must be identified, understood, and incorporated into the scientific advice provided to managers if sustainable exploitation is to be achieved in a changing climate.

Minimum size limits may be ineffective for reef fishes because they often sustain barotrauma when caught from deep (>20 m) waters. A study was undertaken in conjunction with hook-and-line commercial fishermen to calculate discard percentages and evaluate potential release mortality of eight economically important species: black sea bass, Centropristis striata (Linnaeus), red grouper, Epinephelus morio (Valenciennes), snowy grouper, Epinephelus niveatus (Valenciennes), gag, Mycteroperca microlepis (Goode and Bean), scamp, Mycteroperca phenax (Jordan and Swain), vermilion snapper, Rhomboplites aurorubens (Cuvier), white grunt, Haemulon plumieri (Lacepe`de) and red porgy, Pagrus pagrus (Linnaeus). Fishing with baited hook and line occurred in 2004 and 2005 in Onslow Bay, NC, in waters 19-150 m deep. Sub-legal discard rates were 15% for vermilion snapper, 25% for red porgy, 7% for red grouper, 33% for gag, 35% for scamp and 12% for black sea bass. Although mortality based on post-release behaviour was relatively low, higher mortalities estimated from models incorporating hooking location and depth of capture suggest that minimum size limits may not provide the population benefits intended by management in the North Carolina reef fishery. K E Y W O R D S : barotrauma, commercial fishing, discard mortality, gut hooking.

In modern fishery stock assessments, the productivity of exploited stocks is frequently summarized by a scale-invariant “steepness” parameter. This parameter, which describes the slope of the spawner–recruit curve, determines resilience of a stock to exploitation and is highly influential when estimating maximum sustainable yield. In this study, we examined conditions under which steepness can be estimated reliably. We applied a statistical catch-age model to data that were simulated over a broad range of stock characteristics and exploitation patterns and found that steepness is often estimated at its upper bound regardless of underlying productivity. The ability to estimate steepness reliably was most dependent on the true value of steepness, the exploitation history of the stock, natural mortality, duration of the time series, and quality of an index of abundance; this ability was relatively unaffected by levels of stochasticity in recruitment and sampling intensity of age compositions. We further explored the method of inverse prediction to improve estimates of steepness and conclude that this approach holds promise. We illustrate the utility of simulation and inverse prediction methods with two fish stocks located off the southeastern United States, greater amberjack ( Seriola dumerili ) and gag grouper ( Mycteroperca microlepsis ).