A spatially-explicit, stochastic model is developed for Bahia bark scaling, a threat to citrus production in north-eastern Brazil, and is used to assess epidemiological principles underlying the cost-effectiveness of disease control strategies. The model is fitted via Markov chain Monte Carlo with data augmentation to snapshots of disease spread derived from a previously-reported multi-year experiment. Goodness-of-fit tests strongly supported the fit of the model, even though the detailed etiology of the disease is unknown and was not explicitly included in the model. Key epidemiological parameters including the infection rate, incubation period and scale of dispersal are estimated from the spread data. This allows us to scale-up the experimental results to predict the effect of the level of initial inoculum on disease progression in a typically-sized citrus grove. The efficacies of two cultural control measures are assessed: altering the spacing of host plants, and roguing symptomatic trees. Reducing planting density can slow disease spread significantly if the distance between hosts is sufficiently large. However, low density groves have fewer plants per hectare. The optimum density of productive plants is therefore recovered at an intermediate host spacing. Roguing, even when detection of symptomatic plants is imperfect, can lead to very effective control. However, scouting for disease symptoms incurs a cost. We use the model to balance the cost of scouting against the number of plants lost to disease, and show how to determine a roguing schedule that optimises profit. The trade-offs underlying the two optima we identify—the optimal host spacing and the optimal roguing schedule—are applicable to many pathosystems. Our work demonstrates how a carefully parameterised mathematical model can be used to find these optima. It also illustrates how mathematical models can be used in even this most challenging of situations in which the underlying epidemiology is ill-understood.

The emergence of citrus variegated chlorosis (CVC) disease had dramatic consequences to the citrus industry in Brazil. First reported in São Paulo State in 1987, this disease affected approximately 100 million sweet orange trees in the region 20 years later. However, current estimates indicate that the number of diseased trees has been reduced 25-fold since 2009. In this review we summarize research on CVC since its emergence, focusing on work that has contributed to the observed success in managing this disease in the field. Knowledge that CVC is caused by a bacterium (Xylella fastidiosa-now classified as X. fastidiosa subsp. pauca) that is transmited by infected plant material (grafting and nursery plant) and insect vectors, the citrus nursery production system switched in 2003 to a certification program in which plants are grown in insect proof screen-houses and routinely monitored for X. fastidiosa infection. Research triggered by the genome sequencing of a CVC isolate in 2000, the first plant pathogenic bacterium to have its complete genome sequenced, integrated molecular tools and approaches into research aimed at understanding the biology of this pathogen. Ultimately, the challenges imposed by CVC led to significant improvements in the scientific and technical knowledge linked to sweet orange production, and to the development of a more sustainable and resilient citrus industry in Brazil.

In order to describe the dissemination of Citrus leprosis virus (CiLV) and Brevipalpus phoenicis , the Tenuipalpidae mite which transmits it, as well as to generate data for future development of better sampling and disease control procedures, analyses were conducted at three levels of spatial hierarchy. Over 100 distribution maps of mite-infested plants and plants with CiLV symptoms were constructed after evaluation of 174 sweet orange commercial grove blocks from four citrus regions of São Paulo State, Brazil. Spatial correlation between maps of mite-infested plants and those with CiLV symptoms was very low and mostly not significant. Spatial dependency between adjacent plants was incipient as ordinary runs analysis showed that percentages of aggregated sequences within or across rows were very low for both mite-infested and diseased plants. Index of dispersion ( D ) values for all quadrat sizes suggested aggregation of plants with symptoms within quadrats, but much less aggregation for mite-infested plants. Values of log( A ) and b were higher than 0 and 1, respectively, indicating a general and significant aggregation of infested/diseased plants inside quadrats. However, the degree of aggregation of plants with symptoms was higher than that of infested plants. Aggregation in each grove was positively correlated to the incidence of infested/diseased plants. Spatial autocorrelation also showed a higher strength of aggregation for plants with symptoms than for infested ones. This is the first time that spatial patterns of leprosis and B. phoenicis have been described.

A Clorose Variegada dos Citros (CVC) tem sido considerada a mais importante doença citrícola no Brasil, mas diversos aspectos de sua epidemiologia ainda não são bem conhecidos. O presente trabalho objetivou estudar o arranjo espacial das plantas afetadas, visando caracterizar a dinâmica da doença em três regiões do Estado de São Paulo (Noroeste, Centro e Sul). Por meio de avaliação de sintomas visuais, foram mapeados, quinzenalmente, três talhões de laranja-doce (Citrus sinensis) Pêra enxertada em limão Cravo (Citrus limonia), em três regiões do Estado de São Paulo, desde julho de 1998 até dezembro de 2000. Para o estudo da dinâmica espacial, foram aplicadas as seguintes análises: seqüências ordinárias; áreas isópatas; lei de Taylor modificada; índice de dispersão e análise de dinâmica e estrutura de focos. As seqüências ordinárias indicaram uma tendência à aleatoriedade na maioria das avaliações, indicando baixa transmissão a plantas imediatamente vizinhas. A análise de áreas isópatas mostrou pouca formação de focos compactos, numa tendência à uniformidade da incidência da CVC. As demais análises demonstraram pouca diferença no padrão espacial da doença entre as regiões, que pode ser considerado levemente agregado.

This study aimed to characterize the resistance of 31 passion fruit (Passiflora sp.) genotypes to Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. passiflorae (FOP). About 20 seedlings of each genotype were inoculated by immersing the roots in a suspension of 10 6 macroconidia mL -1 for five minutes and then transplanting them into pots containing a mixture of soil and sterile substrate. They were evaluated daily for 120 days for the occurrence of wilt symptoms and death. These data were used to calculate the area under the disease progress curve, for survival analysis and grouping. The mortality rate ranged from 0 to 100% and the AUDPC ranged from 0 for genotypes without symptoms of the disease to 6,650.63 for the hybrid HFOP-01. Genotypes were classified into four subgroups: resistant, moderately resistant, susceptible and highly susceptible. The resistance was genotype dependent, but no significant variation was found between the purple and the yellow P. edulis.