The hypothetical multistep model of carcinogenesis indicates that breast cancer develops via a series of intermediate hyperplastic lesions through in situ to invasive carcinoma. To identify the risk inherent within the different morphologic lesions, we have analyzed the data from 674 benign biopsy specimens comprising 120 cases who subsequently developed breast cancer and 382 controls (matched for age and date of biopsy) spanning a period up to 20 years of follow-up (mean 66.95 months). In this series we have confirmed an increased risk associated with certain types of benign breast lesions. Atypical lobular hyperplasia was the most significant risk factor for breast cancer with more unfavorable outcome in patients <50 years of age (p = 0.003) and a relative risk (RR) of 4.55 (confidence interval [CI] 1.77-11.69). Hyperplasia of usual type showed an RR of 1.53 (CL 1.10-2.13) with a statistically worse probability of survival (cancer-free time) for patients >50 years. For atypical ductal hyperplasia the RR was 2.03 (CI 0.80-1.39). Blunt duct adenosis was significantly more common in cases progressing to breast cancer compared with controls, showing an RR of 2.08 (CI 1.12-2.85). We describe in detail the criteria of morphologic changes observed in blunt duct adenosis and define, for the first time, the level of risk associated with each of its six subtypes. Improved knowledge of breast carcinogenesis will provide insight for defining high-risk groups thus resulting in improved screening and management regimens.

The prognostic significance of ER-alpha expression in benign proliferative breast disease has been confirmed in epithelial hyperplasia of usual type (HUT). However, little is known about the role of ER-beta in these lesions. Therefore, this study was performed to test the hypothesis that, in HUT lesions, the ratio of ER-alpha:ER-beta is an accurate determinant of breast cancer risk and of predicting subsequent progression to invasive breast cancer. This case-control study analyzed a cohort of benign proliferative breast lesions and foci of ductal HUT in 117 patients with long follow-up (20 years). These foci were analyzed by morphometric image analysis together with immunohistochemistry using monoclonal antibodies to ER-beta1 and to ER-alpha. The data were compared with ER-beta expression in all breast carcinomas that subsequently developed in the same patients as well as to ER-alpha expression in the corresponding tissues. In cases that progressed to carcinoma, the ratio of ER-alpha to ER-beta in HUT was significantly higher (P < 0.001) than in those that did not progress. None of the HUT foci from patients who progressed to breast cancer were simultaneously ER-alpha negative and ER-beta positive. Using both ER-beta and ER-alpha in a logistic model demonstrated a 75% correct classification rate for the cohort studied. These findings confirm the diagnostic and prognostic value of defining the ER-alpha and ER-beta status of HUT lesions identified morphologically. The data support the hypothesis that high ER-alpha:ER-beta levels characterize those cases within HUT likely to progress to breast cancer. The data also reveal that a reduced level of ER-beta relative to ER-alpha is an accurate predictor of individual cases of HUT likely to progress to invasive breast carcinoma, thus supporting the concept that ER-alpha transcriptional activity is directly modulated by ER-beta.

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