The EU established an early warning system by introducing the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure (MIP) in the wake of the recent recession. Nevertheless, it has been found by some authors to be rather vague when launching the Excessive Imbalances Procedure. Performed analysis reflects on such views and treats the MIP indicators as a system while assessing the significance of all particular variables separately. This assessment was accomplished by applying a multivariate unbalanced logit model, utilising all 14 MIP headline indicators, using time horizons ranging from one to three years before crisis, which was represented by periods with output gap lower than negative 2 per cent. The approach was confronted with the estimates of a linear probability model to provide an idea about the robustness of the results. In the short term, activity rates, youth unemployment rates and private sector debt are the best performing indicators, complemented by current account balances in the long term.

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Relying on a recently published database of financial crises, this paper assesses an early warning model for predicting banking sector distress. The exercise employs discrete choice models and a signaling approach to evaluate the performance of an existing model based on credit-to-GDP change and real house price growth in regard to predominantly post-crisis data for EU and Visegrad Group countries. As such, unbalanced panel data for 27 EU countries, spanning with annual frequency at longest the period of 2003-2017, as well as unbalanced panel data for 4 Visegrad Group countries covering at most the period 2008Q1-2017Q4 with quarterly frequency were analyzed. The results are generally in line with other empirical research featuring the same model and indicate that the model retains most of its predictive capabilities even when currently available data are used. However, the analysis identifies that the indicator of real house price growth may not be as useful of a predictor of banking crises in more recent periods for EU countries, as it might have been before the 2008 financial and economic crisis. Consequently, a simpler univariate early warning indicator approach might be sufficient for banking sector risk monitoring and management in EU and Visegrad Group countries in regard to identifying periods of distress similar to those in 2008.

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