The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the funder, ERSA or the author's affiliated institution(s). ERSA shall not be liable to any person for inaccurate information or opinions contained herein.

The ,;ews expressed in thlS Working Paper arc those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF pollcy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the WP/02/229 authOr{ s) and are ublished to elicit comments und to further ~~~,"a!",e~. ________ ---.J This paper uses the classical (level) definition of business cycles to analyze the characteristicsduration, amplitude, steepness, and cumulative output movements-of the real GDP series of France, Germany, Italy, the rest of the euro area, and the United States. An index of concordance and its test statistic suggest a great deal of comovementlsynchronization between output cycles. Following that result, a dynamic factor model is estimated. Output fluctuations are mostly explained by a global common component and an euro area common component. However, idiosyncratic components also matter, especially for France, the rest of the euro area, and the United States.

No abstract

This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate.Recently, the export performance of France relative to its own past and relative to a major trading partner, Germany, deteriorated. That deterioration seems related to the geographical destination and product composition of trend exports. Faced with an increase in unit labor costs or in its terms of trade, France adjusts relatively less via price and wage changes, and more via employment changes. Given that SMIC convergence resulted in a significant increase in unit labor costs, foreign sector difficulties might be structural. Trade flows relevance and euro area policy constraints highlight the importance of structural reforms that increase markets flexibility. JEL Classification Numbers: C33, F42

This paper examines the Chilean experience with capital controls and reviews studies on controls on capital inflows. Controls on Chile's inflows had only a temporary impact in reducing specific inflows because they were affected by avoidance. There is some evidence that controls increased interest rates and altered the composition of capital inflows. The studies, however, contain important methodological problems in measuring flows and significant econometric weaknesses, which cast doubt on the robustness of the estimates. No study has assessed the political economy of the controls. It seems premature to view the Chilean experience as supportive of controls on capital inflows.