Monitoring contemporary gene flow from widespread exotic plantations is becoming an important problem in forest conservation genetics. In plants, where both seed and pollen disperse, three components of exotic gene flow with potentially unequal consequences should be, but have not been, explicitly distinguished: zygotic, male gametic and female gametic. Building on a previous model for estimating contemporary rates of zygotic and male gametic gene flow among plant populations, we present here an approach that additionally estimates the third (female gametic) gene flow component, based on a combination of uni- and biparentally inherited markers. Using this method and a combined set of chloroplast and nuclear microsatellites, we estimate gene flow rates from exotic plantations into two Iberian relict stands of maritime pine (Pinus pinaster) and Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris). Results show neither zygotic nor female gametic gene flow but moderate (6-8%) male gametic introgression for both species, implying significant dispersal of pollen, but not of seeds, from exotic plantations into native stands shortly after introduced trees reached reproductive maturity. Numerical simulation results suggest that the model yields reasonably accurate estimates for our empirical data sets, especially for larger samples. We discuss conservation management implications of observed levels of exposure to nonlocal genes and identify research needs to determine potentially associated hazards. Our approach should be useful for plant ecologists and ecosystem managers interested in the vectors of contemporary genetic connectivity among discrete plant populations.

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Gene flow from plantations of nonlocal (genetically exotic) tree provenances into natural stands of the same species is probably a widespread phenomenon, but its effects remain largely unexamined. We investigated early fitness consequences of intraspecific exotic gene flow in the wild by assessing differences in survival among native, nonlocal, and F1 intraspecific hybrid seedlings naturally established within two native pine relicts (one of Pinus pinaster and the other of P. sylvestris) surrounded by nonlocal plantations. We obtained broad‐scale temporally sequential genotypic samples of a cohort of recruits in each pine relict, from seeds before dispersal to established seedlings months after emergence, tracking temporal changes in the estimated proportion of each parental cross‐type. Results show significant proportions of exotic male gametes before seed dispersal in the two pine relicts. Subsequently to seedling establishment, the frequency of exotic male gametes became nonsignificant in P. pinaster, and dropped by half in P. sylvestris. Exotic zygotic gene flow was significantly different from zero among early recruits for P. sylvestris, decreasing throughout seedling establishment. Seedling mortality resulted in small late sample sizes, and temporal differences in exotic gene flow estimates were not significant, so we could not reject the null hypothesis of invariant early viability across parental cross types in the wild.

By changing the genetic background available for selection at subsequent life stages, stage‐specific selection can define adaptive potential across the life cycle. We propose and evaluate here a neutrality test and a Bayesian method to infer stage‐specific viability selection coefficients using sequential random genotypic samples drawn from a longitudinal cohort mortality study, within a generation. The approach is suitable for investigating selective mortality in large natural or experimental cohorts of any organism in which individual tagging and tracking are unfeasible. Numerical simulation results indicate that the method can discriminate loci under strong viability selection, and provided samples are large, yield accurate estimates of the corresponding selection coefficients. Genotypic frequency changes are largely driven by sampling noise under weak selection, however, compromising inference in that case. We apply the proposed methods to analyze viability selection operating at early recruitment stages in a natural maritime pine ( Pinus pinaster Ait.) population. We measured temporal genotypic frequency changes at 384 candidate‐gene SNP loci among seedlings sampled from the time of emergence in autumn until the summer of the following year, a period with high elimination rates. We detected five loci undergoing allele frequency changes larger than expected from stochastic mortality and sampling, with putative functions that could influence survival at early seedling stages. Our results illustrate how new statistical and sampling schemes can be used to conduct genomic scans of contemporary selection on specific life stages.