Computer simulations in which selection acts on a quantitative character show that the randomness of mutations can contribute significantly to evolutionary divergence between populations. In different populations, different advantageous mutations occur, and are selected to fixation, so that the populations diverge even when they are initially identical, and are subject to identical selection. This stochastic process is distinct from random genetic drift. In some circumstances (large populations or strong selection, or both) mutational order can be greatly more important than random drift in bringing about divergence. It can generate a ‘disconnection’ between evolution at the phenotypic and genotypic levels, and can give rise to a rough ‘molecular clock’, albeit episodic, that is driven by selection. In the absence of selection, mutational order has little or no effect.
Between 1848 and 1895 the melanic form E curbonaria of the peppered moth increased in Manchester from 0 to 98%. The reverse process is now occumng in one locality in Memyside where a year-to-year survey has shown that the pale form f. t@icu has increased from 6 to 30% between 1959 and 1984. Supporting information also comes from two studies in N Wales. The Clean Air Acts and the consequent decline in air pollution levels are probably responsible but there are many ill-understood problems, not the least being how, and the extent to which, non-visual selection operates.
A two-locus model is used to analyze the effectiveness of a mixture of insecticides in delaying resistance, compared to the use of the insecticides singly. The effects of factors such as recombination, effective dominance, initial value of allele frequencies and initial value of linkage disequilibrium are considered. It is shown that the use of mixtures is always more effective in delaying the onset of resistance, often by many orders of magnitude. It is shown that there exists a threshold value of recombination fraction, above which the evolution of resistance is extremely slow. Resistance evolves very rapidly for values of recombination fraction below the threshold. Finally, the relevance of these results on resistance management is discussed.
New data show the geographical pattern of frequency of the melanic morph carbonaria of the peppered moth, Biston betularia, in 1983-84. These frequencies are compared with data from 1952 to 1970. After 20 years of smoke control, the area of high melanic frequency has contracted to the northeast. The change indicates a disadvantage to carbonaria of about 12 percent compared with 20 years ago. Computer simulations, which do not include the assumption of heterozygote advantage, provide a good match to the surface for the period 1952 to 1970, and also the 1983-84 surface. Experiments on visual predation have been criticized as giving unrepresentative estimates of selection but they permit satisfactory simulations to be made.
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