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In January 2020, an extreme precipitation event occurred over southeast Brazil, with the epicentre in Minas Gerais state. Although extreme rainfall frequently occurs in this region during the wet season, this event led to the death of 56 people, drove thousands of residents into homelessness, and incurred millions of Brazilian Reais (BRL) in financial loss through the cascading effects of flooding and landslides. The main question that arises is: To what extent can we blame climate change? With this question in mind, our aim was to assess the socioeconomic impacts of this event and whether and how much of it can be attributed to human-induced climate change. Our findings suggest that human-induced climate change made this event >70% more likely to occur. We estimate that >90,000 people became temporarily homeless, and at least BRL 1.3 billion (USD 240 million) was lost in public and private sectors, of which 41% can be attributed to human-induced climate change. This assessment brings new insights about the necessity and urgency of taking action on climate change, because it is already effectively impacting our society in the southeast Brazil region. Despite its dreadful impacts on society, an event with this magnitude was assessed to be quite common (return period of ∼4 years). This calls for immediate improvements on strategic planning focused on mitigation and adaptation.This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Abstract. We developed a technique to identify and estimate the size, intensity, and Tropopause overshoot of thunderstorm convective cores expected to be significant sources of gravity waves. The work was based on GOES IR images of South America on the night of 30 September to 1 October and 25–26 October 2005, as part of the Spread F Experiment (SpreadFEx) in Brazil in 2005. We also characterized, for the first time, the convective activity of three small TLE producing thunderstorms that yielded 11 TLEs on 25–26 October 2005. The campaign occurred during the dry to wet season transition in central Brazil, marked by the presence of extra-tropical cyclogenesis over the Atlantic Ocean, and cold fronts penetrating inland. The Tropopause temperature was typically −76°C with a corresponding altitude of ~15 200 m. Vigorous convective cores capable of generating strong gravity waves were located in convective regions having areas with cloud top temperatures ≤−76°C. They had typical cloud-top temperature deficits of ΔT−2.0°C to −8.0°C from the average surroundings, implying overshoot heights of 200 to 3100 m, which are within the typical range. Fast vertical development and high horizontal growth rates were associated with a large number of simultaneously active vigorous convective cores, indicating that their dynamics may have determined the spatial-temporal development of the thunderstorms analyzed. Moderate convective cores were also present in areas with cloud top −76°C≤T≤−70°C. They had ΔT of −1.9°C to −5.3°C producing overshoots between 80–300 m. All convective cores had typical diameters of 5–20 km and their size tended to increase with ΔT, there was a 57% correlation between the two parameters. Analysis of the relationship of cloud top T with positive and negative cloud-to-ground lightning (+/−CG) occurrence rate and with peak current showed that lighting activity may provide an independent way to identify convective cores and measure their intensity, since they were characterized by a high incidence of low peak current −CGs that forms the bulk of the −CG population.

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