The secular variation of the core field is generally characterized by smooth variations, sometimes interrupted by abrupt changes, named geomagnetic jerks. The origin of these events, observed and investigated for over three decades, is still not fully understood. Many fundamental features of geomagnetic jerks have been the subject of debate, including their origin internal or external to the Earth, their occurrence dates, their duration and their global or regional character. Specific tools have been developed to detect them in geomagnetic field or secular variation time series. Recently, their investigation has been advanced by the availability of a decade of high-quality satellite measurements. Moreover, advances in the modelling of the core field and its variations have brought new perspectives on the fluid motion at the top of the core, and opened new avenues in our search for the origin of M. Mandea ( ) Helmholtz-Zentrum

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Abstract. Taking advantage of the Cluster satellite mission and especially the observations made by the instrument WHISPER to deduce the electron number density along the orbit of the satellites, we studied the relationships between the plasmapause positions (L PP ) and the following L PP indicators: (a) solar wind coupling functions B z (Z component of the interplanetary magnetic field vector, B, in GSM system), BV (related to the interplanetary electric field; B is the magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field vector, V is solar wind velocity), and d mp /dt (which combines different physical processes responsible for the magnetospheric activity) and (b) geomagnetic indices Dst, Ap and AE. The analysis is performed separately for three magnetic local time (MLT) sectors (Sector1 -night sector (01:00-07:00 MLT); Sector2 -day sector (07:00-16:00 MLT); Sector3 -evening sector (16:00-01:00 MLT)) and for all MLTs taken together. All L PP indicators suggest the faster plasmapause response in the postmidnight sector. Delays in the plasmapause responses (hereafter time lags) are approximately 2-27 h, always increasing from Sector1 to Sector3. The obtained fits clearly resolve the MLT structures. The variability in the plasmapause is the largest for low values of L PP indicators, especially in Sector2. At low activity levels, L PP exhibits the largest values on the dayside (in Sector2) and the smallest on the postmidnight side (Sector1). Displacements towards larger values on the evening side (Sector3) and towards lower values on the dayside (Sector2) are identified for enhanced magnetic activity. Our results contribute to constraining the physical mechanisms involved in the plasmapause formation and to further study the still not well understood related issues.

Context. Generally, there are two procedures for solar cycle predictions: the empirical methods -statistical methods based on extrapolations and precursor methods -and methods based on dynamo models. Aims. The goal of the present analysis is to forecast the strength and epochs of the next solar cycle, to investigate proxies for grand solar minima and to reconstruct the relative sunspot number in the Maunder minimum. Methods. We calculate the asymmetry of the ascending and descending solar cycle phases (Method 1) and use this parameter as a proxy for solar activity on longer time scales. Further, we correlate the relative sunspot numbers in the epochs of solar activity minima and maxima (Method 2) and estimate the parameters of an autoregressive moving average model (ARMA, Method 3). Finally, the power spectrum of data obtained with the Method 1 is analysed and the Methods 1 and 3 are combined. Results. Signatures of the Maunder, Dalton and Gleissberg minima were found with Method 1. A period of about 70 years, somewhat shorter than the Gleissberg period was identified in the asymmetry data. The maximal smoothed monthly sunspot number during the Maunder minimum was reconstructed and found to be in the range 0-35 (Method 1). The estimated Wolf number (also called the relative sunspot number) of the next solar maximum is in the range 88-102 (Method 2). Method 3 predicts the next solar maximum between 2011 and 2012 and the next solar minimum for 2017. Also, it forecasts the relative sunspot number in the next maximum to be 90 ± 27. A combination of the Methods 1 and 3 gives for the next solar maximum relative sunspot numbers between 78 and 99. Conclusions. The asymmetry parameter provided by Method 1 is a good proxy for solar activity in the past, also in the periods for which no relative sunspot numbers are available. Our prediction for the next solar cycle No. 24 is that it will be weaker than the last cycle, No. 23. This prediction is based on various independent methods.

Context. Solar wind high-speed streams (HSSs), originating in equatorial coronal holes (CHs), are the main driver of the geomagnetic activity in the late-declining phase of the solar cycle. Aims. We analyze correlations between CH characteristics, HSSs parameters, and the geomagnetic activity indices, to establish empirical relationships that would provide forecasting of the solar wind characteristics, as well as the effect of HSSs on the geomagnetic activity in periods when the effect of coronal mass ejections is low. Methods. We apply the cross-correlation analysis to the fractional CH area (CH) measured between central meridian distances ±10• , solar wind parameters (flow velocity V, proton density n, temperature T , and the magnetic field B), and the geomagnetic indices Dst and Ap. Results. The cross-correlation analysis reveals a high degree of correlation between all studied parameters. In particular, we show that the Ap index is considerably more sensitive to HSS and CH characteristics than Dst. The Ap and Dst indices are most tightly correlated with the solar wind parameter BV 2 . Conclusions. From the point of view of space weather, the most important result is that the established empirical relationships provide a few-days-in-advance forecasting of the HSS characteristics and the related geomagnetic activity at the six-hour resolution.