No abstract

This article summarizes the results from an analysis conducted to investigate the spatio-temporal variability and trends in the rainfall over Ethiopia over a period of 31 years from 1980 to 2010. The data is mostly observed station data supplemented by bias-corrected AgMERRA climate data. Changes in annual and Belg (March-May) and Kiremt (June to September) season rainfalls and rainy days have been analysed over the entire Ethiopia. Rainfall is characterized by high temporal variability with coefficient of variation (CV, %) varying from 9 to 30% in the annual, 9 to 69% during the Kiremt season and 15-55% during the Belg season rainfall amounts. Rainfall variability increased disproportionately as the amount of rainfall declined from 700 to 100 mm or less. No significant trend was observed in the annual rainfall amounts over the country, but increasing and decreasing trends were observed in the seasonal rainfall amounts in some areas. A declining trend is also observed in the number of rainy days especially in Oromia, Benishangul-Gumuz and Gambella regions. Trends in seasonal rainfall indicated a general decline in the Belg season and an increase in the Kiremt season rainfall amounts. The increase in rainfall during the main Kiremt season along with the decrease in the number of rainy days leads to an increase in extreme rainfall events over Ethiopia. The trends in the 95th-percentile rainfall events illustrate that the annual extreme rainfall events are increasing over the eastern and southwestern parts of Ethiopia covering Oromia and Benishangul-Gumuz regions. During the Belg season, extreme rainfall events are mostly observed over central Ethiopia extending towards the southern part of the country while during the Kiremt season, they are observed over parts of Oromia, (covering Borena, Guji, Bali, west Harerge and east Harerge), Somali, Gambella, southern Tigray and Afar regions. Changes in the intensity of extreme rainfall events are mostly observed over southeastern parts of Ethiopia extending to the southwest covering Somali and Oromia regions. Similar trends are also observed in the greatest 3-, 5-and 10day rainfall amounts. Changes in the consecutive dry and wet days showed that consecutive wet days during Belg and Kiremt seasons decreased significantly in many areas in Ethiopia while consecutive dry days increased. The consistency in the trends over large spatial areas confirms the robustness of the trends and serves as a basis for understanding the projected changes in the climate. These results were discussed in relation to their significance to agriculture.

Improving fertilizer use efficiency has remained a challenge, particularly for small-scale farming in undulating ‘abnormal’ landscapes of East Africa. Milne's 1930s concept on ‘Catena’ was considered as a breakthrough in understanding soil variability and its implication on productivity in East African highlands. However, there is limited information on how the ‘Catena’ features could be used for fine tuning fertilizer recommendations. We initiated multiple on-farm replicated experiments in three wheat-growing districts (Endamohoni, Lemo and Worreilu) in the Ethiopian highlands in 2014, 2015 and 2016 to assess landscape positions affecting crop-nutrient responses, identify yield limiting nutrients across the ‘Catena’ (N, P, K, S and Zn) and quantify effects of landscape positions on resources use efficiency. We clustered farmlands across the ‘Catena’ (Hillslopes, Midslopes and Footslopes) based on land scape positions in the respective locations. Wheat yield was more strongly and significantly affected by landscape positions (P < 0.001) than by nutrient sources or rates. The crop response to fertilizers was 50 to 300% higher in foot slopes than in hillslopes, depending on locations and inputs levels. With increasing slope, there was a decrease in a crop fertilizer response due to a significant decrease in soil organic carbon, clay content and soil water content, with r2 of 0.95, 0.86 and 0.96, respectively. The difference in the crop response between landscape positions was significantly higher (P < 0.05) with higher rates of nutrient applications (>N92 P46) while differences between landscape positions diminish at lower rates. Yield benefits due to application of K was significant only in the dry years (P < 0.05), while there was hardly any yield benefit from the application of zinc and sulfur. The crop nitrogen recovery fraction and crop water productivity decreased with an increasing slope regardless of nutrient combinations. The results indicated that the landscape position could be considered as a proxy indicator for targeted fertilizer application, particularly in farms with undulating topographic features. Hillslopes are better served by the application of organic fertilizers along with conservation measures as applying higher rates of mineral fertilizer in hillslopes would rather increase the risk of downstream nutrient movement.

Summary Grain sorghum [Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench] is the major cereal crop used as staple crop in the arid and semi-arid regions of Ethiopia. Low sorghum yields are attributed to soil, climate and topographic factors. We investigated sorghum yield response to factorial combination of nitrogen and phosphorous (NP) as well as potassium (K), sulphur (S) and zinc (Zn), and how the position of farmers’ fields belonging to different landscape positions (i.e., upslope, mid-slope, and foot slope) could explain fertilizer response and yield variability. The analysis in this study made use of dataset from two sets of on-farm experiments where trials were set at two farmers’ fields for NPKS and three farmers’ fields for NPZn experiments in each landscape position. The experiments were implemented at two sorghum-growing locations (i.e., Hayk and Sirinka) in parts of the north-eastern Amhara region in Ethiopia. Sorghum yield response to fertilizer application was strongly linked to the spatial variation along landscape positions and varied over locations. Fertilizer response was significantly higher at foot slopes compared to mid-slopes and upslope positions, where fields at foot slopes exhibited relatively homogeneous responses. Application of combined nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) fertilizers, landscape position and the interaction of fertilizer application and landscape positions strongly affected sorghum yield. There was a linear and significant increase in sorghum yield with the increase in the NP rates. The combined application of NP with different levels of KS as well as NP with Zn fertilizer rates did not result in significant yield difference. The results indicated that local factors were much more influential when accounting for the heterogeneity in sorghum yield response to fertilizer. This further acknowledges the importance of a landscape-based fertilizer management approach to respond yield potential variability related with the farmers’ fields and landscape environment. Further investigation is needed to develop homogeneous fertilizer response units based on spatial variability of soil and topographic attributes along the landscape.

The dry lowlands of Ethiopia are seasonally affected by long periods of low rainfall and, coinciding with rainfall in the Amhara highlands, flood waters which flow onto the lowlands resulting in damage to landscapes and settlements. In an attempt to convert water from storm generated floods into productive use, this study proposes a methodology using remote sensing data and geographical information system tools to identify potential sites where flood spreading weirs may be installed and farming systems developed which produce food and fodder for poor rural communities. First, land use land cover maps for the study area were developed using Landsat-8 and MODIS temporal data. Sentinel-1 data at 10 and 20 m resolution on a 12-day basis were then used to determine flood prone areas. Slope and drainage maps were derived from Shuttle RADAR Topography Mission Digital Elevation Model at 90 m spatial resolution. Accuracy assessment using ground survey data showed that overall accuracies (correctness) of the land use/land cover classes were 86% with kappa 0.82. Coinciding with rainfall in the uplands, March and April are the months with flood events in the short growing season (belg) and June, July and August have flood events during the major (meher) season. In the Afar region, there is potentially >0.55 m ha land available for development using seasonal flood waters from belg or meher seasons. During the 4 years of monitoring (2015–2018), a minimum of 142,000 and 172,000 ha of land were flooded in the belg and meher seasons, respectively. The dominant flooded areas were found in slope classes of <2% with spatial coverage varying across the districts. We concluded that Afar has a huge potential for flood-based technology implementation and recommend further investigation into the investments needed to support new socio-economic opportunities and implications for the local agro-pastoral communities.