No abstract

In recent years, descriptive models of risky choice have incorporated features that reflect the importance of particular outcome values in choice. Cumulative prospect theory (CPT) does this by inserting a reference point in the utility function. SP/A (security-potential/aspiration) theory uses aspiration level as a second criterion in the choice process. Experiment 1 compares the ability of the CPT and SP/A models to account for the same within-subjects data set and finds in favor of SP/A. Experiment 2 replicates the main finding of Experiment 1 in a between-subjects design. The final discussion brackets the SP/A result by showing the impact on fit of both decreasing and increasing the number of free parameters. We also suggest how the SP/A approach might be useful in modeling investment decision making in a descriptively more valid way and conclude with comments on the relation between descriptive and normative theories of risky choice.

Subjects judged whether binary strings had been generated by a random or a noarandom process. Half of the strings were generated by a Bernoulli process with p ~ .5. The other half were generated by either a repetition-biased process or an alternation-biased process. Subjects were (a) not informed about the nonrandom process, (b) informed about the qualitative nature of the process, or (c) given accurate feedback after each trial about the generating process. The data show that subjects equate long runs and symmetry with nonrandomness, and high rates of alternation with randomness, making them less successful in detecting alternation-biased processes. The data also show that performance can be improved by instructions or feedback. A second experiment using statistically sophisticated subjects showed that although they perform better than naive subjects, their data are similar qualitatively. We interpret these results in terms of whether the subject must perform the task in a null hypothesis mode or a maximum likelihood mode.

The activation of ambiguous word senses was investigated by measuring the amount of interference in naming the ink color of a word that was either related or unrelated to one of the meanings of a preceding ambiguous word. In agreement with previous results obtained using this procedure (Conrad, 1974), evidence was obtained that both meanings of the ambiguous words are activated even in the presence of biasing context. However, contrary to previous findings, the degree of activation of each word sense depended on its degree of compatibility with the context. These results are consistent with a language processing system in which all interpretations of an ambiguity are accessed and then processed until an accurate determination has been made of which interpretation best satisfies the syntactic and semantic constraints that govern it.

Stimuli were generated by factorially varying two sets of features that distinguish between two letter patterns. Subjects rated the degree to which each stimulus was an instance of one letter rather than the alternative. The obtained ratings were relatively continuous and systematic functions of the feature manipulations. The results were well accounted for by a model in which (a) each feature has an associated fuzzy predicate that is used to independently evaluate the degree to which it is true that the feature is present in the stimulus; (b) the featural truth values are integrated according to fuzzy logical expressions that correspond directly to propositional descriptions of each letter pattern; and (c) the resulting goodness of match to the stimulus for each letter is compared to that of the alternatives to determine the final identification.