Abstract. Six surface drifters (drogued at about 1 m depth) deployed in the inner German Bight (North Sea) were tracked for between 9 and 54 days. Corresponding simulations were conducted offline based on surface currents from two independent models (BSHcmod and TRIM). Inclusion of a direct wind drag (0.6 % of 10 m wind) was needed for successful simulations based on BSHcmod currents archived for a 5 m depth surface layer. Adding 50 % of surface Stokes drift simulated with a third-generation wave model (WAM) was tested as an alternative approach. Results resembled each other during most of the time. Successful simulations based on TRIM surface currents (1 m depth) suggest that both approaches were mainly needed to compensate insufficient vertical resolution of hydrodynamic currents.The study suggests that the main sources of simulation errors were inaccurate Eulerian currents and lacking representation of sub-grid-scale processes. Substantial model errors often occurred under low wind conditions. A lower limit of predictability (about 3-5 km day −1 ) was estimated from two drifters that were initially spaced 20 km apart but converged quickly and diverged again after having stayed at a distance of 2 km or less for about 10 days. In most cases, errors in simulated 25 h drifter displacements were of similar order of magnitude.

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Station Helgoland Roads in the south-eastern North Sea (German Bight) hosts one of the richest longterm time series of marine observations. Hydrodynamic transport simulations can help understand variability in the local data brought about by intermittent changes of water masses. The objective of our study is to estimate to which extent the outcome of such transport simulations depends on the choice of a specific hydrodynamic model. Our basic experiment consists of 3,377 Lagrangian simulations in time-reversed mode initialized every 7 h within the period Feb 2002-Oct 2004. Fifty-day backward simulations were performed based on hourly current fields from four different hydrodynamic models that are all well established but differ with regard to spatial resolution, dimensionality (2D or 3D), the origin of atmospheric forcing data, treatment of boundary conditions, presence or absence of baroclinic terms, and the numerical scheme. The particle-tracking algorithm is 2D; fields from 3D models were averaged vertically. Drift simulations were evaluated quantitatively in terms of the fraction of released particles that crossed each cell of a network of receptor regions centred at the island of Helgoland. We found substantial systematic differences between drift simulations based on each of the four hydrodynamic models. Sensitivity studies with regard to spatial resolution and the effects of baroclinic processes suggest that differences in model output cannot unambiguously be assigned to certain model properties or restrictions. Therefore, multi-model simulations are needed for a proper identification of uncertainties in long-term Lagrangian drift simulations.

Time variability of Eulerian residual currents in

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