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The global gold market has recently attracted a lot of attention and the price of gold is relatively higher than its historical trend. This paper constitutes the first exercise of system dynamics applied to predict gold price in monthly frequency from January 2010 to June 2011. Rather than static forecasting characteristics found in another quantitative method, time-series, system dynamics allows possibility for prediction based on capturing causal interactions and consequently the feedback loops usually found in a complex system behaviour such as the gold price system. Therefore, it was expected that moving toward forecasting method utilizing system dynamics model could result in better prediction of the gold price. Our paper supports such hypothesis. Having ability to take into account of qualitative factors particularly political chaos and economic crisis events, the model developed in this paper reduces the prediction error, mean absolute percent error (MAPE), to merely 2% compared to approximately 9% error found with Holt-Winter Exponential Smoothing and 11% error using Box-Jenkins Method.

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Purpose After knee replacement surgery, rehabilitation is needed to recover to normal levels of mobility. A continuous passive motion (CPM) machine is usually introduced at this stage to aid rehabilitation. However, the redundant structure and complex mechanism of the existing machine has resulted in irregular use. The purpose of this paper is to redesign the current machine. Design/methodology/approach The mechanical and electrical systems of the current machine were studied alongside interviews with stakeholders. Problems with the existing machine were identified. Related information was gathered in both the engineering and medical aspects. The redesign concept of the equipment was specified following engineering analyses to develop the final model. Finite element analysis was performed to ensure the appropriate size and dimension of the equipment. The prototype of the redesigned CPM was manufactured in-house. Product testing was conducted with 40 volunteers including experienced therapists, nurses, university students and working-age people. Findings Compared to the previous machine, the newly designed model was improved in both functioning and manufacturing costs. The redesigned machine is more durable and consists of a less complex structure. Originality/value The redesigned machine introduces some new features and removes unnecessary functions. As a result, the model costs less and hence, is considered beneficial to the general public. More utilization is expected which could eventually reduce the therapists’ workload at the hospital. This research provides well-defined processes of the product development starting from the users’ requirement analysis to the prototype testing stage.

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