No abstract

With the explosion of video content on the Internet, there is a need for research on methods for video analysis which take human cognition into account. One such cognitive measure is memorability, or the ability to recall visual content after watching it. Prior research has looked into image memorability and shown that it is intrinsic to visual content, but the problem of modeling video memorability has not been addressed sufficiently. In this work, we develop a prediction model for video memorability, including complexities of video content in it. Detailed feature analysis reveals that the proposed method correlates well with existing findings on memorability. We also describe a novel experiment of predicting video sub-shot memorability and show that our approach improves over current memorability methods in this task. Experiments on standard datasets demonstrate that the proposed metric can achieve results on par or better than the state-of-the art methods for video summarization.

Modern predictive models require large amounts of data for training and evaluation, absence of which may result in models that are specific to certain locations, populations in them and clinical practices. Yet, best practices for clinical risk prediction models have not yet considered such challenges to generalizability. Here we ask whether population- and group-level performance of mortality prediction models vary significantly when applied to hospitals or geographies different from the ones in which they are developed. Further, what characteristics of the datasets explain the performance variation? In this multi-center cross-sectional study, we analyzed electronic health records from 179 hospitals across the US with 70,126 hospitalizations from 2014 to 2015. Generalization gap, defined as difference between model performance metrics across hospitals, is computed for area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and calibration slope. To assess model performance by the race variable, we report differences in false negative rates across groups. Data were also analyzed using a causal discovery algorithm “Fast Causal Inference” that infers paths of causal influence while identifying potential influences associated with unmeasured variables. When transferring models across hospitals, AUC at the test hospital ranged from 0.777 to 0.832 (1st-3rd quartile or IQR; median 0.801); calibration slope from 0.725 to 0.983 (IQR; median 0.853); and disparity in false negative rates from 0.046 to 0.168 (IQR; median 0.092). Distribution of all variable types (demography, vitals, and labs) differed significantly across hospitals and regions. The race variable also mediated differences in the relationship between clinical variables and mortality, by hospital/region. In conclusion, group-level performance should be assessed during generalizability checks to identify potential harms to the groups. Moreover, for developing methods to improve model performance in new environments, a better understanding and documentation of provenance of data and health processes are needed to identify and mitigate sources of variation.

Interactive learning environments facilitate learning by providing hints to fill the gaps in the understanding of a concept. Studies suggest that hints are not used optimally by learners. Either they are used unnecessarily or not used at all. It has been shown that learning outcomes can be improved by providing hints when needed. An effective hinttaking prediction model can be used by a learning environment to make adaptive decisions on whether to withhold or provide hints. Past work on student behavior modeling has focused extensively on the task of modeling a learner's state of knowledge over time, referred to as knowledge tracing. The other aspects of a learner's behavior such as tendency to use hints has garnered limited attention. Past knowledge tracing models either ignore the questions where a hint was taken or label hints taken as an incorrect response. We propose a multi-task memory-augmented deep learning model to jointly predict the hint-taking and the knowledge tracing task. The model incorporates the effect of past responses as well as hints taken on both the tasks. We apply the model on two datasets -ASSISTments 2009-10 skill builder dataset and Junyi Academy Math Practicing Log. The results show that deep learning models efficiently leverage the sequential information present in a learner's responses. The proposed model significantly out-performs the past work on hint prediction by at least 12% points. Moreover, we demonstrate that jointly modeling the two tasks improves performance consistently across the tasks and the datasets, albeit by a small amount.

We focus on three aspects of the early spread of a hashtag in order to predict whether it will go viral: the network properties of the subset of users tweeting the hashtag, its geographical properties, and, most importantly, its conductance-related properties. One of our significant contributions is to discover the critical role played by the conductance based features for the successful prediction of virality. More specifically, we show that the first derivative of the conductance gives an early indication of whether the hashtag is going to go viral or not. We present a detailed experimental evaluation of the effect of our various categories of features on the virality prediction task. When compared to the baselines and the state of the art techniques proposed in the literature our feature set is able to achieve significantly better accuracy on a large dataset of 7.7 million users and all their tweets over a period of month, as well as on existing datasets.