System dynamics simulation modelling technique is taught to students at undergraduate and graduate levels.The students are taught how to develop a system dynamics model of the system under study. This book is written to help students understand the concepts and fundamental elements of system dynamics simulation, and provide a step-by-step guide in conducting a system dynamics study. This book is suitable for students who are studying system dynamics simulation modelling at undergraduate and graduate levels.It offers the concepts and application of system dynamics as well as provides an approach for modelling effectively.Having read this book, the reader will be able to: Learn the concept of system dynamics simulation and its application, Understand the important steps of modelling process, andConduct a system dynamics study successfully.
Malaysian employees' public pension plan was studied to analyze pension expenditure due to salary risk and demographic risk. By integrating risk management and System Dynamics (SD) approach, the risk factors involved were identified, a causal loop diagram was constructed, and the SD model was developed. By using a sample of actual data, the proposed model was then validated through behavior validity test and a risk analysis was conducted. Then, risk monitoring was performed through policy evaluation in which the impact of different policy scenarios on pension expenditure was analyzed. Risk management and dynamics simulation approach in analyzing pension expenditure were shown to be useful in evaluating the impact of changes and policy decisions on risk.
A confidence interval is an interval estimate of a parameter of a population calculated from a sample drawn from the population. Bootstrapping method, which involves producing several new data sets that are resampled from the original data in order to estimate parameter for each newly created data set, allowing an empirical distribution for the parameter to be estimated. Since certain statistics are harder to estimate, confidence intervals are rarely employed. Several statistics might necessitate multi-step formulas assuming that are impractical for calculating confidence intervals. This paper reviews research on the concept of bootstrapping and bootstrap confidence interval. The current narrative analysis was developed to answer the main research question: (1) What is the concept of the bootstrap method and bootstrap confidence interval? (2) What are the methods of bootstrapping to obtain confidence interval? This study has found general bootstrap method idea, various techniques of bootstrap methods, its advantages and disadvantages, and its limitations. There are normal interval method, percentile bootstrap method, basic method, first-order normal approximation method, bias-corrected bootstrap, accelerated bias-corrected bootstrap and bootstrap-t method. This study concludes that the advantages of using bootstrap CI is that it does not require any assumptions about the shape of distribution and universality of the approach. Bootstrapping is a computer-intensive statistical technique that relies significantly on modern high-speed digital computers to do massive computations.
The reliability of public transport services (e.g., bus) is a critical factor to be considered among public transport users. This factor is important for the consequences that come with unreliability will significantly increase unnecessary anxiety and discomfort. Such consequences include additional waiting time, late arrival at destinations, and missed connections. The ability of the system to follow the planned schedule and maintain consistent travel time are some of the factors that need to be in focus. In this study, we investigated satisfaction among students who reside in campus towards bus services provided by the university. Factor analysis and structural models were developed to achieve the research objective. Three factors havesignificant relationships with students’ satisfaction. The finding also indicated that bus services are an important requirement of the on-campus students.
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