Within this paper we summarize the results of the Thaumetopoea processionea monitoring at two observation sites and try to interpret population dynamics from 2006 to 2010 considering meteorological data. Furthermore, observations on the behaviour of neonates associated with oak budburst are presented and discussed. in 2007 large larval colonies occurred and population densities peaked. Massive defoliation and larval migration due to food shortage were observed regularly leading to reduced female moth fecundity. Unfavourable weather conditions probably abetted OPM population decline in spring 2008. additionally oak budburst was delayed remarkably. More detailed observations on the hatching process and the behaviour of single colonies revealed increasing mortality after two and a half weeks of starvation. the 2009 results indicated another increase of population densities, but exceeded cool and humid weather conditions in May 2010 presumably prevented a new OPM outbreak. in accordance with previous studies egg parasitisation seems to play a minor role in OPM population dynamics.

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Abstract. Thaumetopoea processionea is a serious defoliator of oak and of medical concern whose abundance has consistently increased throughout Europe during the past two decades. This study validates a previously published frost day/temperature sum model for predicting time of egg hatch of this species using five years of recent field data from South-West Germany. This model proved satisfactory for predicting the time of egg hatch of T. processionea. Hence, the model was used to retrospectively predict the time of egg hatch of T. processionea in the Karlsruhe area, which indicates that the time of egg hatch has fluctuated over the past 130 years. In the last two decades, however, predicted time of egg hatch is much earlier than the long-term average due to the increase in winter and early spring temperatures. Comparison of predicted time of egg hatch of T. processionea and long-term records of the time of foliation of its common host Quercus robur revealed that in the study area the temporal advance in the timing of both events was similar. This is not in accordance with recently published research on spring-feeding folivores, which report a diverging trend in the timing of egg hatch and budburst of their host plants as a consequence of human-induced climate change.

Case study Oberschwaben / Allgäu / Vorarlberg / Prättigau -Risk Assessment of Abiotic and Biotic Hazards http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/56284 357 Figure 2. Case study subarea Ravensburg and tree species distributionMixed and pure Norway Spruce forests dominate throughout the district whereas European Beech and other deciduous tree species play a minor role. Forests are interspersed with bogs and a few open grasslands. Besides management of water protection and nature conservation areas half a million cubic meters of timber are sustainably harvested every year providing valuable resources for the regional sawmill, paper and plywood industry. Unfortunately many of the even aged Norway spruce dominated forests have been subject to wind throw and following bark beetle mass outbreak events in the past [ ]. According to current climate projections there is a strong need for alternative silvicultural management options to preserve their growth and economical productivity.. Allgäu / Kempten . . Geographical settingThe case study area Allgäu / Kempten figure is located in the south-western part of Bavaria . ° and . ° latitude and . ° and . ° longitude between the foothills of the Alps close to Kempten and F(ssen in the north and the high Alps in the south bordering the frontier The administrative district of Lindau is separated in municipalities with approx. . inhabitants and a total area of .ha. The administrative district of Oberallgäu is the southernmost administrative district of the Federal Republic of Germany with an area of . , km² and approximately . inhabitants. Oberallgäu is separated in municipalities. . . ClimateIn the western lowlands m a.s.l. along Lake Constance, annual temperatures average around -°C. In the Western Allgäu Uplands m a.s.l. the temperature mean is -°C. In both areas mean annual precipitation is .. mm. Within the administrative district of Oberallgäu mean annual temperatures range from . °C in the northern parts to . °C in the south. The mean annual precipitation in northern areas sums up to . . mm per year whereas the south receives .. mm annually. . . Forest functionsThe case study area comprises . ha of forests of which about a third . ha are declared protection forests securing settlements and infrastructural facilities from avalanches, rockfall, landslides and flooding. They develop under geologic conditions characterized by limestone, flysch and tertiaries with sandy clayey soil or bogs. Besides their essential protective function, Case study Oberschwaben / Allgäu / Vorarlberg / Prättigau -Risk Assessment of Abiotic and Biotic Hazards http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/56284 359 forests are crucial for tourism and recreation activities km of pedestrian walkways, km of bicycle tracks as well as for landscape and nature conservation. . . Forest types and distributionThe most common tree species are Norway Spruce Picea abies L. Karst. % , European Beech Fagus sylvatica L. and Silver Fir Abies alba Mill. . They represent the climax species of typical mixed mountain forests in southern Germany figure ....