With the development of industrialization and urbanization, cities have become the main carriers of economic activities. However, the long-term development of cities has also caused damage to resources and the environment. Hence, objective and scientific evaluation of urban low-carbon sustainable development capacity is very important. An index system of urban low-carbon sustainable development capability is constructed in this paper, and a TOPSIS-BP neural network model is established to evaluate the low-carbon sustainable development capability of Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou in China. At the same time, the difference degree of low-carbon sustainable development level in these four cities is analyzed by standard deviation and coefficient of variation, and the influencing factors of urban low-carbon sustainable development ability are extracted by grey correlation analysis. The results show that (1) the capability of low-carbon sustainable development in four cities is rising and the difference of low-carbon sustainable development capability is decreasing; (2) the general view that the higher the general investment in low-carbon sustainable development, the higher the level of low-carbon sustainable development in cities has not been verified; (3) with the change of time series, the factors affecting the capability of low-carbon sustainable development in the same city are different and the influence of the same factor on the capability of low-carbon sustainable development in different cities is different.

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