No abstract

Цель исследования. Промежуточный анализ информации официальной статистической отчетности, принятой в Российской Федерации, о контактных лицах с больными COVID-19. Материалы и методы. анализ статистической базы данных по COVID-19 в Российской Федерации за февраль–июнь 2020 г. Результаты. Тяжесть течения болезни у первичных пациентов, количество и локализация контактов, а также вторичных случаев COVID-19, имеют ряд закономерностей. Количество контактов у больных легкой формой составило 50,1% из числа всех контактных лиц, среднетяжелой - 45,1%, тяжелой - 4,8%. Видна четкая зависимость числа вторичных заражений от контакта с пациентами с различной степенью тяжести течения болезни. В возрастной группе 41-64 лет наблюдалось наибольшее число заболевших 44,42% и контактных 44,51%. В возрастной группе 18-40 лет - 30,2% заболевших и 34,21% контактных. В группе несовершеннолетних пациентов в возрасте от 0-6 лет - 2,7% и 7-17 лет - 4,02% заболевших и, соответственно этим возрастным группам, 1,94% и 7-17 3,13% контактных. Прослеживается четкая взаимосвязь передачи инфекции с контактами в бытовых очагах, которые занимают ведущее значение в трансмиссии вируса, особенно в группах 0-17 и в возрасте 65 лет и старше. Для пожилых людей также немаловажную роль имеют контакты в учреждениях социальной защиты. Заключение. Мировой опыт показывает, что введение карантина и отслеживание контактных лиц ведёт к снижению новых случаев заболевания и уменьшению вторичных случаев заражения COVID-19. Российский опыт подтверждает правильность данных мероприятий в отношении контактных лиц, ограничительных мероприятий и соблюдений профилактических мероприятий.

Objective. To perform an interim analysis of epidemiological parameters of COVID-19 related to contacts and secondary cases of infection in the Russian Federation. Materials and methods. We analyzed 190,856 primary COVID-19 cases and 146,996 people who had been in contact with them. We used some data of monitoring performed by the Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Wellbeing in January–June 2020. We characterized the foci of infection and people who had contacts with primary COVID-19 cases and secondary cases of infection. Results. Just over half (50.02%) of study participants who had contacts with COVID-19 contacted with primary patients with mild disease, whereas 45.40% of individuals contacted with patients with moderate disease and 4.58% of individuals had contacts with patients with severe disease. Patients with mild COVID-19 interacted with more people, which resulted in a greater number of secondary cases of infection. The highest proportion of both primary COVID-19 patients and people who had contact with COVID-19 was observed in the age group of 41–64 years (44.42% and 44.51%, respectively). Approximately one third of COVID-19 patients and people who had contact with COVID-19 were 18 to 40 years old (30.20% and 34.21% respectively). The proportions of children aged 0–6 years and 7–17 years among COVID-19 patients were 2.70% and 4.02%, respectively; the same proportions among those who had contact with COVID-19 cases were 1.94 and 3.13%, respectively. Household contacts were the most common ways of COVID-19 transmission in all age groups. Patients aged between 40 and 64 years played the most significant role in the transmission of this infection in different foci. Individuals from this age group comprised 42.02% of patients infected in social institutions, 43.40% of those who had household contacts, and 47.70% of those infected at work. Conclusion. Patients with mild and moderate disease aged 18 to 64 years had the highest number of contacts and, therefore, caused the highest number of secondary cases of infection. Household contacts played the most important role in COVID-19 transmission in all age groups. Among people aged 18 to 64 years, COVID-19 transmission at work was also important. In all foci of infection, the majority of patients were in the age group of 40–64 years. Our findings can be used to optimize the preventive measures for COVID-19. Key words: epidemic process, age groups, severity, contacts, COVID-19, Russia, household contacts

Background: many researchers report numerous predictors of severe COVID-19 and poor prognosis. However, to make a quick decision, the doctor needs to have a certain set of data that he can use in routine practice to predict the outcome in patients with this disease. Aims: develop and describe a predictive model for determining an unfavorable outcome in COVID-19 patients based on age, objective, laboratory and instrumental data and comorbid pathology. Materials and methods: the study included 447 patients with a laboratory-confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19 who underwent inpatient treatment in the period from March to August 2021. Discriminant analysis was used with cross-validation to build a predictive model. Results: Based on discriminant analysis, a predictive model was developed to predict outcome in patients with COVID-19. Evaluation of clinical findings such as respiratory rate, heart rate, SpO2, laboratory data and computed tomography results on admission to the hospital showed their significance as predictors of poor outcome. The discrimination constant was 0.4435. The sensitivity of the model is 96.4%, the specificity is 90.4%. Conclusion: the developed model will help medical institutions predict the outcome of the disease when a patient is admitted to the hospital and, on this basis, optimize and prioritize the provision of necessary medical care.

Active epidemic process in Russia started in the March, 2020 after beginning the local transmission. At the end of June approximately 650 thousands COVID-19 cases were recorded in Russia. Aim of study: epidemical characteristics of patients with COVID-19 in Russia Materials and methods: statistic analysis of database of COVID-19 in Russia during the first half of 2020. Majority of cases in a group aged 0-17 years old was mild. Patients > 65 years and above were registered with a moderate and severe forms of COVID-19, what shows that this group needs a special attention. The biggest part of all the cases was in a group of people of employable age. This fact shows that control of restrictive measures has to be performed as a main stream in this group. In case of delayed initial medical service COVID-19 had more moderate and severe forms.