Alaska encompasses several climate types because of its vast size, high-latitude location, proximity to oceans, and complex topography. There is a great need to understand how climate varies regionally for climatic research and forecasting applications. Although climate-type zones have been established for Alaska on the basis of seasonal climatological mean behavior, there has been little attempt to construct climate divisions that identify regions with consistently homogeneous climatic variability. In this study, cluster analysis was applied to monthly-average temperature data from 1977 to 2010 at a robust set of weather stations to develop climate divisions for the state. Mean-adjusted Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer surface temperature estimates were employed to fill in missing temperature data when possible. Thirteen climate divisions were identified on the basis of the cluster analysis and were subsequently refined using local expert knowledge. Divisional boundary lines were drawn that encompass the grouped stations by following major surrounding topographic boundaries. Correlation analysis between station and gridded downscaled temperature and precipitation data supported the division placement and boundaries. The new divisions north of the Alaska Range were the North Slope, West Coast, Central Interior, Northeast Interior, and Northwest Interior. Divisions south of the Alaska Range were Cook Inlet, Bristol Bay, Aleutians, Northeast Gulf, Northwest Gulf, North Panhandle, Central Panhandle, and South Panhandle. Correlations with various Pacific Ocean and Arctic climatic teleconnection indices showed numerous significant relationships between seasonal division average temperature and the Arctic Oscillation, Pacific-North American pattern, North Pacific index, and Pacific decadal oscillation.
The operational implementation of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Spectral Model (RSM) in Hawaii is the first application of a mesoscale model to improve weather forecasts in the Pacific region. The primary model guidance for the National Weather Service Pacific region has been provided by the NCEP Aviation (AVN) run of the Global Spectral Model (GSM). In this paper, three recent synopticscale disturbances that affected the Hawaiian Islands are selected to demonstrate the potential utility of model guidance produced by the RSM and contrast it qualitatively with that from the AVN. NCEP RSM simulations, with enhanced grid resolution, can resolve convective rainbands and the interaction between the environmental airflow and the complex island topography, features the GSM cannot capture.RSM model performance in reproducing mesoscale structures associated with the synoptic-scale systems is encouraging. For the first simulation, a kona low case on 3 November 1995, the RSM predicted a northeastsouthwest-oriented rainband that closely matched a convective cloud band in the satellite imagery and maximum rainfall over Kauai. The second RSM simulation, a cyclogenesis event on 3 March 1996, shows remarkable agreement with observations. Important features such as the heavy rains and high winds over portions of Maui and Hawaii are accurately forecast. The third RSM simulation, a heavy rain event on 13 November 1996, is associated with convergence along a trailing cold-frontal trough. In this case the RSM correctly forecast the timing and distribution of heavy rainfall on the island of Oahu. Subjective comparisons between RSM output and observations demonstrate the potential utility of the model guidance for local weather forecasts in Hawaii.
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