Abstract. Despite recent research identifying a clear anthropogenic impact on glacier recession, the effect of recent climate change on glacier-related hazards is at present unclear. Here we present the first global spatio-temporal assessment of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) focusing explicitly on lake drainage following moraine dam failure. These floods occur as mountain glaciers recede and downwaste. GLOFs can have an enormous impact on downstream communities and infrastructure. Our assessment of GLOFs associated with the rapid drainage of moraine-dammed lakes provides insights into the historical trends of GLOFs and their distributions under current and future global climate change. We observe a clear global increase in GLOF frequency and their regularity around 1930, which likely represents a lagged response to post-Little Ice Age warming. Notably, we also show that GLOF frequency and regularity – rather unexpectedly – have declined in recent decades even during a time of rapid glacier recession. Although previous studies have suggested that GLOFs will increase in response to climate warming and glacier recession, our global results demonstrate that this has not yet clearly happened. From an assessment of the timing of climate forcing, lag times in glacier recession, lake formation and moraine-dam failure, we predict increased GLOF frequencies during the next decades and into the 22nd century.

In this article we describe natural hazards associated with outburst floods of Palcacocha Lake and landslide events on the slopes of its moraine dam, in Cojup Valley, Cordillera Blanca (Peru). These events occurred in the last 70 years and some of them resulted in disasters, which strongly affected the city of Huarás. Field investigations and reference expression hydrodynamic tests as well as archive satellite images and aerial pictures were used to describe the evolution of hazards connected with Palcacocha Lake. Expression hydrodynamic tests proved a high permeability of sandy gravels glacial sediments, which form the present-day lake dam. Seepage through the natural dam forming small ponds below the overflow spillways occurs. A retreat of the glacial tongue causing an increase of the lake volume and unloading of the slope toe areas are the most important recent processes that influence the potential hazards affecting the Cojup valley. The research has proved that the climate warming and ongoing deglaciation play a very significant role in the change of natural hazards conditions in high mountains.

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Context. Studies of long-term solar activity and variability require knowledge of the past evolution of the solar surface magnetism. The archives of full-disc Ca II K observations that have been performed more or less regularly at various sites since 1892 can serve as an important source of such information. Aims. We derive the plage area evolution over the last 12 solar cycles by employing data from all Ca II K archives that are publicly available in digital form, including several as-yet-unexplored Ca II K archives. Methods. We analysed more than 290 000 full-disc Ca II K observations from 43 datasets spanning the period between 1892–2019. All images were consistently processed with an automatic procedure that performs the photometric calibration (if needed) and the limb-darkening compensation. The processing also accounts for artefacts affecting many of the images, including some very specific artefacts, such as bright arcs found in Kyoto and Yerkes data. Our employed methods have previously been tested and evaluated on synthetic data and found to be more accurate than other methods used in the literature to treat a subset of the data analysed here. Results. We produced a plage area time-series from each analysed dataset. We found that the differences between the plage areas derived from individual archives are mainly due to the differences in the central wavelength and the bandpass used to acquire the data at the various sites. We empirically cross-calibrated and combined the results obtained from each dataset to produce a composite series of plage areas. The ’backbone’ approach was used to bridge the series together. We have also shown that the selection of the backbone series has little effect on the final composite of the plage area. We quantified the uncertainty of determining the plage areas with our processing due to shifts in the central wavelength and found it to be less than 0.01 in fraction of the solar disc for the average conditions found on historical data. We also found the variable seeing conditions during the observations to slightly increase the plage areas during the activity maxima. Conclusions. We provide the most complete so far time series of plage areas based on corrected and calibrated historical and modern Ca II K images. Consistent plage areas are now available on 88% of all days from 1892 onwards and on 98% from 1907 onwards.