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Abstract.A new method (HGP for Historical, Geomechanical and Probabilistic) is proposed to estimate the failure probability of potentially unstable rock masses in a homogenous area, as a function of time. Analysis of a rock falls inventory yields the mean number of rock falls which may be expected in the area for the given time period and a given volume range. According to their geomechanical features, the potentially unstable rock masses are distributed in classes corresponding to different failure probabilities. The expected number of rock falls can be expressed as a function of these unknown probabilities. Assuming that only the ratio between these probabilities can be estimated, combining the historical and geomechanical analysis allows estimating the order of magnitude of the different failure probabilities. The method gives a quantitative significance to the evaluations which are usually attributed to potentially unstable rock masses. Rock-fall hazard can then be compared with other natural hazards, such as floods or earthquakes. The method is applied to a case study of calcareous cliffs in the area of Grenoble, France.

International audienceSeveral geophysical techniques (electromagnetic profiling, electrical tomography, seismic refraction tomography, and spontaneous potential and seismic noise measurement) were applied in the investigation of the large gravitational mass movement of Séchilienne. France. The aim of this study was to test the ability of these methods to characterize and delineate the rock mass affected by this complex movement in mica schists, whose lateral and vertical limits are still uncertain. A major observation of this study is that all the zones strongly deformed (previously and at present) by the movement are characterized by high electrical resistivity values (>3 kΩ·m), in contrast to the undisturbed mass, which exhibits resistivity values between a few hundred and 1 kΩ·m. As shown by the surface observations and the seismic results, this resistivity increase is due to a high degree of fracturing associated with the creation of air-filled voids inside the mass. Other geophysical techniques were tested along a horizontal transect through the movement, and an outstanding coherency appeared between the geophysical anomalies and the displacement rate curve. These preliminary results illustrate the benefits of combined geophysical techniques for characterizing the rock mass involved in the movement. Results also suggest that monitoring the evolution of the rock mass movement with time-lapse geophysical surveys could be beneficial

AcknowledgmentsThe PARN thanks the members and partners of its scientific and technical network who contributed to the preparatory work for this review, and the Rhône-Alpes Region for its support of the Alps-Climate-Risks portal initiated in the ClimChAlp project alongside ONERC. The DREAL Rhône-Alpes is also acknowledged for its support of the PARN 'Projects' database, and of the transboundary database on Interreg territorial cooperation projects on natural hazards, developed within the partnership of the RiskNat and RiskNET Alcotra projects. Finally, we thank the two anonymous reviewers, whose suggestions have helped improve the manuscript.

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