Abstract. Lofted mineral dust over data-sparse regions presents considerable challenges to satellite-based remote sensing methods and numerical weather prediction alike. The southwest Asia domain is replete with such examples, with its diverse array of dust sources, dust mineralogy, and meteorologically driven lofting mechanisms on multiple spatial and temporal scales. A microcosm of these challenges occurred over 3–4 August 2016 when two dust plumes, one lofted within an inland dry air mass and another embedded within a moist air mass, met over the southern Arabian Peninsula. Whereas conventional infrared-based techniques readily detected the dry air mass dust plume, they experienced marked difficulties in detecting the moist air mass dust plume, becoming apparent when visible reflectance revealed the plume crossing over an adjacent dark water background. In combining information from numerical modeling, multi-satellite and multi-sensor observations of lofted dust and moisture profiles, and idealized radiative transfer simulations, we develop a better understanding of the environmental controls of this event, characterizing the sensitivity of infrared-based dust detection to column water vapor, dust vertical extent, and dust optical properties. Differences in assumptions of dust complex refractive index translate to variations in the sign and magnitude of the split-window brightness temperature difference commonly used for detecting mineral dust. A multi-sensor technique for mitigating the radiative masking effects of water vapor via modulation of the split-window dust-detection threshold, predicated on idealized simulations tied to these driving factors, is proposed and demonstrated. The new technique, indexed to an independent description of the surface-to-500 hPa atmospheric column moisture, reveals parts of the missing dust plume embedded in the moist air mass, with the best performance realized over land surfaces.

Monte Carlo and Morris screening techniques are used to examine the relative sensitivity of deep convective simulations to changes in initial conditions (IC) versus changes to microphysical parameters (MP). IC are perturbed using a set of empirical orthogonal function–principal component pairs obtained from a database of tropical soundings, while MP are perturbed consistent with their range of realistic values. Monte Carlo experiments provide a broad overview of parameter–output response, while Morris screening techniques identify the most significant influences on specific model output variables. Changes to MP produce a similar order-of-magnitude response in convective hydrologic cycle, dynamics, and latent heating as changes to IC. Changes in IC appear to have a larger effect on radiative fluxes than perturbations to MP. The distribution of low-level latent heating reveals that changes in MP have a larger influence on cold pool properties than changes to the environment. The dominant effects are produced by a subset of cloud MP and thermodynamic structure functions, indicating perturbation of a subset of the control factors may be used to produce most of the variability in a short-term convective-scale ensemble forecast. The most influential MP are the autoconversion threshold, the rain particle size distribution intercept, and the ice particle fall speed parameters. The most influential EOFs are those that correspond to variability in lower- to midtropospheric temperature and water vapor, as well as zonal low-level shear. The results have implications for both the understanding of what influences convective development and the design of ensemble-based prediction and data assimilation systems.

Abstract. This high-resolution numerical modeling study investigates the potential range of impact of surface-lofted dust aerosols on the mean radiative fluxes and temperature changes associated with a dust-lofting episode over the Arabian Peninsula (2–5 August 2016). Assessing the potential for lofted dust to impact the radiation budget and temperature response in regions of the world that are prone to intense dust storms is important due to the impact of such temperature perturbations on thermally driven mesoscale circulations such as sea breezes and convective outflows. As such, sensitivity simulations using various specifications of the dust-erodible fraction were performed using two high-resolution mesoscale models that use similar dust-lofting physics based on threshold friction wind velocity and soil characteristics. The dust-erodible fraction, which represents the fraction (0.0 to 1.0) of surface soil that could be mechanically lifted by the wind and controls the location and magnitude of surface dust flux, was varied for three experiments with each model. The “Idealized” experiments, which used an erodible fraction of 1.0 over all land grid cells, represent the upper limit on dust lofting within each modeling framework, the “Ginoux” experiments used a 1∘ resolution, spatially varying erodible fraction dataset based on topographic depressions, and the “Walker” experiments used satellite-identified, 1 km resolution data with known lofting locations given an erodible fraction of 1.0. These simulations were compared with a “No-Dust” experiment in which no dust aerosols were permitted. The use of erodible fraction databases in the Ginoux and Walker simulations produced similar dust loading which was more realistic than that produced in the Idealized lofting simulations. Idealized lofting in this case study generated unrealistically large amounts of dust compared with observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) due to the lack of locational constraints. Generally, the simulations with enhanced dust mass via surface lofting experienced reductions in daytime insolation due to aerosol scattering effects as well as reductions in nighttime radiative cooling due to aerosol absorption effects. These radiative responses were magnified with increasing amounts of dust loading. In the Idealized simulation with extreme (AOD > 5) dust amounts, these radiative responses suppressed the diurnal temperature range. In the Ginoux and Walker simulations with moderate (AOD ∼1–3) amounts of lofted dust, the presence of dust still strongly impacted the radiative fluxes but only marginally modified the low-level temperature. The dust-induced near-surface temperature change was limited due to competing thermal responses to changes in the net radiative fluxes and the dust-layer radiative heating rates. Compared to the Ginoux simulation, the use of increased resolution in dust-erodible fraction inventories in the Walker simulations led to enhanced fine-scale horizontal variability in lofted dust and a modest increase in the mean dust concentration profile and radiative or thermal responses. This study discusses the utility of using high-resolution dust source databases for simulating lofted dust, the need for greater spatial coverage of in situ aerosol observations in dust-prone regions, the impacts of dust on the local radiation budget and surface thermal conditions, and the potential dust radiative impacts on thermally driven mesoscale features.

Capsule SummaryExploring convective updrafts and cold pools using novel observational strategies, including a “Flying Curtain” of drones, radiosondes, and surface stations, to characterize cold pool heterogeneities, and targeting updrafts using radiosondes.

Abstract. Along the coasts of the Arabian Peninsula, convective dust storms are a considerable source of mineral dust to the atmosphere. Reliable predictions of convective dust events are necessary to determine their effects on air quality, visibility, and the radiation budget. In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting Model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) is used to simulate a 2016 summertime dust event over the Arabian Peninsula and examine the variability in dust fields and associated vertical transport due to the choice of convective parameterization and convection-permitting versus parameterized convection. Simulations are run at 45 and 15 km grid spacing with multiple cumulus parameterizations, and are compared to a 3 km simulation that permits explicit dry and moist convective processes. Five separate cumulus parameterizations at 15 km grid spacing were tested to quantify the spread across different parameterizations. Finally, the impact these variations have on radiation, specifically aerosol heating rates is also investigated. On average, in these simulations the convection-permitting case produces higher quantities of dust than the parameterized cases in terms of dust uplift potential, vertical dust concentrations, and vertical dust fluxes. Major drivers of this discrepancy between the simulations stem from the convection-permitting case exhibiting higher surface wind speeds during convective activity; lower dust emission wind threshold velocities due to drier soil; and more frequent, stronger vertical velocities which transport dust aloft and increase the atmospheric lifetime of these particles. For aerosol heating rates in the lowest levels, the shortwave effect prevails in the convection-permitting case with a net cooling effect, whereas a longwave net warming effect is present in the parameterized cases. The spread in dust concentrations across cumulus parameterizations at the same grid resolution (15 km) is an order of magnitude lower than the impact of moving from parameterized towards explicit convection. We conclude that tuning dust emissions in coarse-resolution simulations can only improve the results to first-order and cannot fully rectify the discrepancies originating from disparities in the representation of convective dust transport.