The influence of the length of the calibration period and observation frequency on the predictive uncertainty in time series modeling of groundwater dynamics is investigated. Studied series are from deltaic regions with predominantly shallow groundwater tables in a temperate maritime climate where heads vary due to precipitation and evaporation. Response times vary over a wide range from ∼60 to ∼1200 days. A Transfer Function‐Noise model is calibrated with the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method to both synthetic series and measured series of heads. The model fit and uncertainty are evaluated for various calibration periods and observation frequencies. It is often assumed that the required length of the calibration period is related to the response time of the system. In this study, no strong relationship was observed. Results indicate, however, that the required length of the calibration period is related to the decay time of the noise. Furthermore, the length of the calibration period was much more important than the total number of observations. For the measured series, the credible intervals could commonly be reduced to ∼10% of the measured head range and the prediction intervals to ∼50% of the measured head range with calibration periods of 20 years with approximately two observations per month.

Abstract. Groundwater dynamics may play a significant role in landslides. A detailed model is developed of the groundwater dynamics in landslides in varved clays in the Trièves area in the French Alps. The varved clays consist of a sequence of alternating silt and clay layers, covered by a colluvium layer and intersected by fissures. The hydraulic conductivity of the clay layers is negligible compared to the silt layers. It is conceptualized that fissures form a hydraulic connection between the colluvium and the varved clays. Groundwater recharge flows through the colluvium into the fissures, where water is exchanged horizontally between the fissure and the silt layers of the varved clays. Groundwater flow in the colluvium is simulated with the Boussinesq equation, while flow in the silt layers of the varved clays is simulated with the Richards equation. Longitudinal outflow from the fissure is simulated with a linear-reservoir model. Scattered data of relatively short monitoring periods is available for several landslides in the region. A good similarity between observed and simulated heads is obtained, especially when considering the lack of important physical parameters such as the fissure width and the distance between the monitoring point and the fissure. A simulation for the period 1959-2004 showed some correlation between peaks in the simulated heads and the recorded occurrence of landslides, while the bottom of the varved clays remained saturated during the entire simulation period.

Groundwater dynamics may play a significant role in landslides. A detailed model is developed of the groundwater dynamics in landslides in varved clays in the Trièves area in the French Alps. The varved clays consist of a sequence of alternating silt and clay layers, covered by a colluvium layer and cut through by fissures. The hydraulic conductivity of the clay layers is negligible compared to the silt layers. It is conceptualized that fissures form a hydraulic connection between the colluvium and the varved clays. Groundwater recharge flows through the colluvium into the fissures where water is exchanged horizontally between the fissure and the silt layers of the varved clays. Groundwater flow in the colluvium is simulated with the Boussinesq equation while flow in the silt layers of the varved clays is simulated with the Richards' equation. Longitudinal outflow from the fissure is simulated with a linear-reservoir model. Scattered data of relatively short monitoring periods is available for several landslides in the region. A good similarity between observed and simulated heads is obtained, especially when considering the lack of important physical parameters such as the fissure width and the distance between the monitoring point and the fissure. A simulation for the period 1959–2004 showed some correlation between peaks in the simulated heads and the recorded occurrence of landslides while the bottom of the varved clays remained saturated during the entire simulation period