There are insufficient numbers of prognostic factors available for prediction of clinical outcome in patients with stage III malignant cutaneous melanoma, even when known adverse pathological risk factors, such as macrometastasis, number of lymph node metastases, and ulceration are taken into consideration. The aim of this study was therefore to identify additional prognostic factors to better predict patients with a high risk of relapse, thus enabling us to better determine the need for adjuvant treatment in stage III disease. An RNA oligonucleotide microarray study was performed on first regional lymph node metastases in 42 patients with stage III melanoma: 23 patients with short-term survival (≤ 13 months) and 19 with long-term survival (≥ 60 months), to identify genes associated with clinical outcome. Candidate genes were validated by real-time PCR and immunohistochemical analysis. Several gene ontology (GO) categories were highly significantly differentially expressed including glycolysis (GO: 0006096; P<0.001) and the pigment biosynthetic process (GO: 0046148; P<0.001), in which overexpression was associated with short-disease-specific survival. Three overexpressed glycolytic genes, GAPDHS, GAPDH, and PKM2, and two pigment-related genes, TYRP1 and OCA2, were selected for validation. A significant difference in GAPDHS protein expression between short- and long-term survivors (P=0.021) and a trend for PKM2 (P=0.093) was observed in univariate analysis. Positive expression of at least two of four proteins (GAPDHS, GAPDH, PKM2, TYRP1) in immunohistochemical analysis was found to be an independent adverse prognostic factor for disease-specific survival (P=0.011). Our results indicate that this prognostic panel in combination with established risk factors may contribute to an improved prediction of patients with a high risk of relapse.

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BackgroundThe variable prognosis in stage III cutaneous melanoma is partially due to unknown prognostic factors. Improved prognostic tools are required to define patients with an increased risk of developing metastatic disease who might benefit from adjuvant therapies. The aim was to examine if cellular immune markers in association with tumor proliferation rate and BRAF mutation status have an impact on prognosis in stage III melanoma.MethodsWe have used two sets of case series with stage III disease: 23 patients with short survival (≤ 13 months) and 19 patients with long survival (≥ 60 months). Lymph node metastases were analyzed for Ki67, CD8 and FOXP3 protein expression using immunohistochemistry. BRAF mutation status was analyzed in a previous study on the same samples.ResultsLow tumor proliferation rate was significantly associated with a better prognosis (p = 0.013). Presence of FOXP3+ T cells was not correlated to adverse clinical outcome. A highly significant trend for a longer survival was found in the presence of an increasing number of markers; CD8+ and FOXP3+ T cells, low tumor proliferation and BRAF wildtype status (p = 0.003). Presence of at least three of these four markers was found to be an independent favorable prognostic factor (OR 19.4, 95% CI 1.9-197, p = 0.012), when adjusting for ulceration and number of lymph node metastases. Proliferation alone remained significant in multivariate analyses (OR 26.1, 95% CI 2.0-344, p = 0.013) but with a wider confidence interval. This panel still remained independent when also adjusting for a previously identified prognostic glycolytic-pigment panel.ConclusionsWe have demonstrated that presence of immune cells in association with tumor proliferation and BRAF mutation status may further contribute to identify stage III melanoma patients with high risk of relapse.