Long-term prospective studies of the outcomes associated with HCV infection are rare and critical for assessing the potential impact of HCV treatment. Using liver biopsy as a start point, we looked at development of end stage liver disease (ESLD), hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and liver-related death (LRD) according to fibrosis stage, among a cohort of American Indian/Alaska Native persons in Alaska.
Persons were classified as having no/mild (Ishak=0,1), moderate (Ishak=2), or severe (Ishak=3,4) fibrosis or cirrhosis (Ishak=5,6). We examined time until development of ESLD, HCC and LRD and report survival probabilities at 3, 5, 7 and 10-years.
Of 407 persons, 39%(n = 150) had no/mild fibrosis, 32%(n = 131) had moderate fibrosis, 22%(n = 88) had severe fibrosis and 9%(n = 38) had cirrhosis. The average time of follow-up was 7.3 years. Within 5 years of biopsy, 1.7% (95% confidence interval (CI):0.4,6.8) of persons with none/mild fibrosis developed ESLD compared to 7.9% (CI:4.0,15.2), 16.4% (CI:9.6,27.2) and 49.0% (CI:33.0,67.7) with moderate, severe fibrosis, and cirrhosis, respectively (p<0.01). The 5-year outcome of HCC was 1.0% (CI:0.1,7.0), 1.0% (CI 0.1,6.6), 1.1% (CI:0.2,7.7) and 13.4% (CI:4.4,36.7) among persons with none/mild, moderate fibrosis, severe fibrosis and cirrhosis, respectively (p<0.01). Five years following biopsy, 0.0% (CI:0.0,14.8) of persons with none/mild fibrosis had suffered an LRD compared to 1.0% (CI:0.2,7.5) of persons with moderate fibrosis, 4.7% (CI:1.5,14.1) with severe fibrosis and 16.3% (CI:7.0,35.1) with cirrhosis (p<0.01).
Conclusion
For prevention of HCC, LRD and ESLD in the short-term, HCV therapy should target those with more than mild fibrosis.