Recent supermultiplier models view autonomous demand as the driver of long‐run growth and as the key stabilizer of Harrodian instability. Attempts to endogenize autonomous demand effectively undermine the existence of a supermultiplier, however, and models with ‘endogenous autonomous demand’ show strong similarities with an earlier literature on feedback effects from the labor markets to aggregate demand. Government consumption could in principle be a source of exogenous autonomous demand in the long run. But an active fiscal policy guided by principles of functional finance can produce more powerful stabilization, avoid overheating and excessive utilization rates, and secure faster adjustments of the growth rate toward its target level.
The role of imports of intermediate inputs as one of the elements of a sound growth strategy is a contentious issue. For some authors, see, e.g., Amiti and Konings (2007), and Goldberg et al. (2010), the access to imported intermediate goods allows for quality improvement in manufacturing products and broader participation of a country in international trade. Their viewpoint rests on the arguments that the increased availability of imported inputs may facilitate product diversification and trigger pro-competition effects, inducing cost reductions and quality improvements in the final product. But for other authors such as Blecker and Ibarra (2013), Moreno-Brid (1999, 2002) and Pacheco-López and Thirlwall (2004) the reliance on a strategy based on foreign content of export may be harmful to growth. While for Moreno-Brid (1999, 2002) and Pacheco-López
There is a growing empirical literature that seeks to determine country growth and demand. One possible shortcoming of those studies is their sensitivity to the estimation strategy, which is linked to the time horizon. A profit-led regime has been found to be the most likely outcome when adopting an aggregative approach, while a wage-led regime is the most likely outcome when utilizing a structural estimation. Another potential weakness is that the empirical approaches adopted are mostly linear. To overcome these criticisms, we adopt wavelet analysis, which allows the decomposition of a time series into short- and long-term components, thereby enabling investigation of whether the growth regime switches over time. This paper tests an extended version of the Goodwin model for the US economy using data from 1967 to 2016. The results show that both the growth and demand regimes are sensitive to time and are profit-led in the short term and wage-led in the long term, thereby confirming Blecker's (2016) insight.
Multissetorial, incluindo os fluxos de capitais setoriais e suas implicações para a nova estratégia de crescimento da economia brasileira, que visa estimular as exportações por meio da diversificação dos produtos, da agregação de valor e do aumento da intensidade tecnológi-ca das exportações brasileiras. Para tanto, desenvolve-se um modelo multissetorial com fluxos de capitais setoriais e, na sequência, realizam-se algumas simulações computacionais considerando os principais setores e parceiros econômicos do país (China, Estados Unidos e Bloco Europeu). os resultados sugerem que a melhor estratégia seria estimular os setores específicos, ou seja, ampliar a participação dos setores nos quais o país possua maior vantagem comparativa em relação a cada um dos seus parceiros comerciais (Manufaturados -EUA, Semimanufaturados -Europa, Básicos -China). Não obstante o resultado obtido na simulação, nos moldes do modelo proposto por Hausmann et al. (2004), pode gerar a aceleração do crescimento econômico. Assim, o Plano Nacional de Exportações (2015Exportações ( -2018 deve dar preferência à ampliação de incentivos a setores que apresentem elevadas razões das elasticidades no sentido de Thirlwall.
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