John C Martin Foundation.

Background: Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) with resulting nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) are increasingly a cause of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) globally. This burden is expected to increase as epidemics of obesity, diabetes and metabolic syndrome continue to grow. The goal of this analysis was to use a Markov model to forecast NAFLD disease burden using currently available data. Methods:A model was used to estimate NAFLD and NASH disease progression in 8 countries based on data for adult prevalence of obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM). Published estimates and expert consensus were used to build and validate the model projections. Results:If obesity and DM level off in the future, we project a modest growth in total NAFLD cases (0-30%), between 2016-2030, with the highest growth in China as result of urbanization and the lowest growth in Japan as result of a shrinking population.However, at the same time, NASH prevalence will increase 15-56%, while liver mortality and advanced liver disease will more than double as result of an aging/increasing population.Conclusions: NAFLD and NASH represent a large and growing public health problem and efforts to understand this epidemic and to mitigate the disease burden are needed.If obesity and DM continue to increase at current and historical rates, both NAFLD and 4 NASH prevalence are expected to increase. Since both are reversible, public health campaigns to increase awareness and diagnosis, and to promote diet and exercise can help manage the growth in future disease burden.Lay summary: Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) can lead to advanced liver disease, and are occurring in increasing numbers in tandem with epidemics of obesity and diabetes. A mathematical model was built to understand how the disease burden associated with NAFLD and NASH will change over time. Results suggest increasing numbers of cases of advanced liver disease and liver-related mortality in the coming years. 5 BACKGROUNDNonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a leading cause of liver disease globally [1][2][3]. This condition is characterized by excess liver fat in the absence of other causes such as alcohol consumption [4,5]. Obesity, type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM) and metabolic syndrome (MetS) are consistently identified as the most important risk factors for NAFLD [4,6].In order to classify the population, NAFLD may be divided into two groups: NAFL (steatosis only) or NASH (nonalcoholic steatohepatitis), where steatosis is accompanied by inflammation and ballooning. NASH frequently progresses to liver fibrosis [7] that is the main risk factor for liver-related mortality [8]. Odds of progression to advanced liver disease, including hepatic decompensation and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), are higher among those with NASH compared to those with NAFL [7]. Increasing age, obesity, DM and the presence of NASH have been consistently identified as risk factors for progression to cirrhosis [6,9].There is a...

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Circulating autoantibodies (auto-Abs) neutralizing high concentrations (10 ng/mL, in plasma diluted 1 to 10) of IFN-α and/or -ω are found in about 10% of patients with critical COVID-19 pneumonia, but not in subjects with asymptomatic infections. We detect auto-Abs neutralizing 100-fold lower, more physiological, concentrations of IFN-α and/or -ω (100 pg/mL, in 1/10 dilutions of plasma) in 13.6% of 3,595 patients with critical COVID-19, including 21% of 374 patients > 80 years, and 6.5% of 522 patients with severe COVID-19. These antibodies are also detected in 18% of the 1,124 deceased patients (aged 20 days-99 years; mean: 70 years). Moreover, another 1.3% of patients with critical COVID-19 and 0.9% of the deceased patients have auto-Abs neutralizing high concentrations of IFN-β. We also show, in a sample of 34,159 uninfected subjects from the general population, that auto-Abs neutralizing high concentrations of IFN-α and/or -ω are present in 0.18% of individuals between 18 and 69 years, 1.1% between 70 and 79 years, and 3.4% >80 years. Moreover, the proportion of subjects carrying auto-Abs neutralizing lower concentrations is greater in a subsample of 10,778 uninfected individuals: 1% of individuals <70 years, 2.3% between 70 and 80 years, and 6.3% >80 years. By contrast, auto-Abs neutralizing IFN-β do not become more frequent with age. Auto-Abs neutralizing type I IFNs predate SARS-CoV-2 infection and sharply increase in prevalence after the age of 70 years. They account for about 20% of both critical COVID-19 cases in the over-80s, and total fatal COVID-19 cases.

SUMMARY. The disease burden of hepatitis C virus (HCV) is expected to increase as the infected population ages. A modelling approach was used to estimate the total number of viremic infections, diagnosed, treated and new infections in 2013. In addition, the model was used to estimate the change in the total number of HCV infections, the disease progression and mortality in 2013-2030. Finally, expert panel consensus was used to capture current treatment practices in each country. Using today's treatment paradigm, the total number of HCV infections is projected to decline or remain flat in all countries studied. However, in the same time period, the number of individuals with late-stage liver disease is projected to increase. This study concluded that the current treatment rate and efficacy are not sufficient to manage the disease burden of HCV. Thus, alternative strategies are required to keep the number of HCV individuals with advanced liver disease and liver-related deaths from increasing.