Abstract. The Ismetpasa segment of the North Anatolian Fault is one of the rare places in the world where aseismic creep event has been observed. This segment was ruptured during both the 1944, Mw=7.2, Gerede and 1951, Mw=6.9, Kursunlu earthquakes. After these earthquakes, the segment has not experienced a major earthquake anymore. Starting from 1957, many studies using different technologies have been carried out to determine the creep rate of the segment. All these studies until 2002 revealed that the creep movement of the segment slowed down. The new observation campaign of the Ismetpasa geodetic network shows that the Ismetpasa segment has ceased the slowing trend and started to gain speed. This might be interpreted as an increasing earthquake risk for this segment.

Abstract. The Ismetpasa segment of the North Anatolian Fault (NAF) is a rare place where aseismic fault slip (creep) has been observed. Its creep behaviour has been monitored using different observation methods since the 1950s. The findings obtained from the studies until 1990s showed that the creep rate exponentially decreased before the major shocks in 1999, Golcuk (M w = 7.4) and Duzce (M w = 7.2). After these shocks, three GPS periods observation in 2002, 2007 and 2008 were carried out on the geodetic network established around the segment. The evaluations of these observations showed that the creep behaviour relaxed after the major earthquakes. This result demonstrates that the creep behaviour of the Ismetpasa segment might be a warning before future major earthquakes.

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