Seed dormancy cycling plays a crucial role in the lifecycle timing of many plants. Little is known of how the seeds respond to the soil seed bank environment following dispersal in spring into the short-term seed bank before seedling emergence in autumn.Seeds of the winter annual Arabidopsis ecotype Cvi were buried in field soils in spring and recovered monthly until autumn and their molecular eco-physiological responses were recorded.DOG1 expression is initially low and then increases as dormancy increases. MFT expression is negatively correlated with germination potential. Abscisic acid (ABA) and gibberellin (GA) signalling responds rapidly following burial and adjusts to the seasonal change in soil temperature. Collectively these changes align germination potential with the optimum climate space for seedling emergence.Seeds naturally dispersed to the soil in spring enter a shallow dormancy cycle dominated by spatial sensing that adjusts germination potential to the maximum when soil environment is most favourable for germination and seedling emergence upon soil disturbance. This behaviour differs subtly from that of seeds overwintered in the soil seed bank to spread the period of potential germination in the seed population (existing seed bank and newly dispersed). As soil temperature declines in autumn, deep dormancy is re-imposed as seeds become part of the persistent seed bank.

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Summary Mathematical models that predict emergence of weed seedbanks could be useful tools for determining the most suitable time for weed seedling control and, consequently, should result in a higher efficacy of applied control methods. To achieve this goal in dormant weed species, functional relationships should be established between environmental factors regulating dormancy and dormancy changes of seed populations. In the present work, we used a simple model and an optimisation procedure to quantify the effect of temperature on Polygonum aviculare seed dormancy release and induction, based on germination data. Dormancy release rate was inversely related to temperature, showing a decreasing logistic trend that results in no dormancy release for seeds exposed to 20 and 25°C. In contrast, dormancy induction rates in absolute values were positively associated with temperature, showing a logistic trend in which dormancy induction was almost zero at low temperatures and maximal at 25°C. Derived model parameters were used to simulate dormancy changes of P. aviculare seeds stored under controlled and field conditions. These results suggest that similar model structures could be used to quantify temperature effects on seed dormancy status of other weed species and to develop predictive models of weed emergence.

Summary The ability of hydrothermal time (HTT) and virtual osmotic potential (VOP) models to describe the kinetics of maize (Zea mays) and chickpea (Cicer arietinum) seed germination under variable conditions of water potential was investigated with a view to gaining an improved understanding of the impact of on‐farm seed priming on seedling establishment through simulation. Germination and/or imbibition time courses were recorded over a wide range of constant temperatures and water potentials and simple stepwise changes in water potential. Both models adequately described germination under constant environmental conditions, but not conditions of water potential that varied. To test the hypothesis that this inaccuracy resulted from the use of ambient water potential, a parsimonious model of seed imbibition was developed to calibrate the HTT and VOP models (IHTT and IVOP) and drive them with estimates of seed water potential. The IHTT and IVOP models described germination during stepwise changes in water potential more accurately than the conventional models, and should contribute to improved predictions of germination time in the field.

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