The invasion of the blacklegged tick, Ixodes scapularis into Ontario, Canada poses a significant risk to public health because it is a vector for numerous pathogens, including Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto, the causative agent of Lyme disease. Baseline field sampling in 2014 and 2015 detected I. scapularis and B. burgdorferi at sites across southern, eastern and central Ontario, including a hot spot in eastern Ontario. A “speed of spread” model for I. scapularis developed by Leighton and colleagues (2012) estimated that the tick’s range was expanding northward at 46 km/year. In 2016, we revisited a subset of sites sampled in 2014 and 2015 to understand the changing nature of risk, and assess whether the rate of tick invasion is consistent with the speed of spread estimate. Ticks were collected via tick dragging at 17 out of 36 sites, 5 of which were new sites for I. scapularis. Samples were positive for B. burgdorferi at 8 sites. No other I. scapularis-borne pathogens were detected. Centrographic statistics revealed an increase in the dispersion of I. scapularis positive sites in eastern Ontario. Field data for each site were then compared to the model’s predicted year of establishment for each census subdivision. Our findings illustrate that the range expansion of I. scapularis and the emergence of B. burgdorferi is ongoing, and provide short timescale evidence of the processes associated with I. scapularis spread. The range front appears to be moving at a rate of ~46 km/year, with colonization of the tick behind this range front occurring at a slower and heterogeneous rate. Assessment of site-level ecological factors did not provide any insight into the underlying processes that may be influencing the colonization of I. scapularis in specific areas. Ongoing field sampling is needed to monitor this dynamic process. This study highlights the current geographic risk associated with Lyme disease, which can be used to target public health interventions to the areas of greatest risk.

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Over the past two decades, the northward spread of Ixodes scapularis across Ontario, Canada, has accelerated and the risk of Lyme disease has increased. Active surveillance is a recognized and effective method for detecting reproducing populations of I. scapularis. In this study, we conducted field sampling consistent with an active surveillance approach from May to October 2014 at 104 sites in central, eastern, and southern Ontario to determine the current distribution of I. scapularis and other tick species, and enhance our understanding of the geographic risk associated with Borrelia burgdorferi and other tick-borne pathogens of public health significance in this region. I. scapularis was present at 20 of the 104 sites visited. Individuals of the tick species Dermacentor variabilis, Haemaphysalis leporispalustris, and Ixodes dentatus were also collected. I. scapularis was positive by PCR for B. burgdorferi at five sites. These sites formed a significant spatial cluster in eastern Ontario. No ticks were PCR positive for Borrelia miyamotoi, Anaplasma phagocytophilum, and Babesia microti. This study provides an up-to-date picture of the distribution of I. scapularis and other tick species, and the risk of B. burgdorferi and other pathogens of public health significance in central, eastern, and southern Ontario. This information may allow for more effective surveillance efforts and public health interventions for Lyme disease and other tick-borne diseases in this region.

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