The purpose of this research is to analyze the factors that affect the development of the KEK Tourism Kelayang Cape as an alternative economy after tin mining. The research method used with quantitative descriptive design, the number of samples are 80 SME based on Tourism. Analysis of the data by using the second order analysis with the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) or known as PLS Formative with the XLSTAT PLS-PM Progam. Research findings indicate that the factors that affect the development of KEK Tourism Kelayang Cape, sequentially from the largest is a media networking and communication Industry, the behavior and consumer reactions, marketing strategy, politic-economicsocial support and technology, government regulation, natural environment, skills and expertise and Industrial action and the competition. The results of research has implications for the management practices that within the framework of the speed up the development of KEK Tourism Kelayang Cape, The most important is the more expand network media and communication industry in the current digital era, but the best performance is skills and expertise but this dimension is not so important. Research Originality : This research carried out in the election of 1 from 10 tourism destinations in Indonesia is the area of the KEK (Special Economic Zone), based on tourism , in The Belitung Island, by focusing on the factors that affect the development of tourism in Belitung Island.

Exponentially Weighted Moving Average Method the standard deviation calculation described in the previous section assumes that the data volatility is constant (homoscedastic) and can not be applied to unstable (heteroscedastic) data volatility.Therefore, one of the approaches to deal with the volatility of non-constant (heteroscedastic) data is the Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) method developed. Data collection The data used in this study is daily stock price data from several stocks, namely PT. Agro Lestari (Persero) and Aneka Tambang Tbk which then will be sought stock return. Period of share data used from March 27, 2013 to March 27, 2014.From the result of VaR analysis shows that the risk of buying AALI shares is bigger that is 1050,25274 compared to buying ANTM stock that is equal to 49,7633,766 in year 2013-2014, so this is one of the reference in decision of share in 2014 -2015. Assessing VaR this can be a strategy in the company's decision to take stock portfolio policies other.