Large-scale deployment of carbon capture and storage needs a dedicated infrastructure. Planning and designing of this infrastructure require incorporation of both temporal and spatial aspects. In this study, a toolbox has been developed that integrates ArcGIS, a geographical information system with spatial and routing functions, and MARKAL, an energy bottom-up model based on linear optimization. Application of this toolbox led to blueprints of a CO 2 infrastructure in the Netherlands. The results show that in a scenario with 20% and 50% CO 2 emissions reduction targets compared to their 1990 level in respectively 2020 and 2050, an infrastructure of around 600 km of CO 2 trunklines may need to be built before 2020. Investment costs for the pipeline construction and the storage site development amount to around 720 mV and 340 mV, respectively. The results also show the implication of policy choices such as allowing or prohibiting CO 2 storage onshore on CO 2 Capture and Storage (CCS) and infrastructure development. This paper illustrates how the ArcGIS/MARKAL-based toolbox can provide insights into a CCS infrastructure development, and support policy makers by giving concrete blueprints over time with respect to scale, pipeline trajectories, and deployment of individual storage sites.
In this paper we present a probabilistic fast model for performance assessment of geothermal doublets for direct heat applications. It is a simple yet versatile and multipurpose tool. It can be well applied in better understanding the sensitivity of performance to key subsurface parameters and depth trends therein, and for assessing the probability of success for geothermal projects under technical and financial constraints.The underlying algorithms deliver a sensible accuracy given the uncertainties associated with geothermal projects at exploration state. A public release of the software, available under the name of DoubletCalc, is easy to handle and requires a limited set of input parameters. Thanks to an open source code, DoubletCalc can be implemented in other software applications and extended as it has been implemented for the integration into the national geothermal information system in the Netherlands (ThermoGIS, 2011).Apart from its application for site assessments, the tool can be integrated into automated workflows processing faster representations of key aquifer properties and capable to produce indicative maps for predicted doublet power, economic feasibility and prediction of cumulative amount of heat that can be recovered. These capabilities are specifically important for decision support for policymakers while assessing the effects of particular insurance schemes and funding mechanisms.DoubletCalc cannot and is not intended to substitute geologic exploration approaches. As exploration measures, such as seismic surveys are cost intensive, DoubletCalc can be used to focus geothermal exploration on areas and sites where an enhanced probability of success can be expected.
A resource assessment methodology has been developed to designate prospective high permeable clastic aquifers and to assess the amount of potential geothermal energy in the Netherlands. It builds from the wealth of deep subsurface data from oil and gas exploration and production which is publicly and digitally available. In the resource assessment various performance indicator maps have been produced for direct heat applications (greenhouse and spatial heating). These maps are based on detailed mapping of depth, thickness, porosity, permeability, temperature and transmissivity (methodology presented in other papers in this NJG issue). In the resource assessment analysis 14 lithostratigraphic units (clastic aquifers) have been considered, ranging in age from the Permian to the Cenozoic. Performance maps have been made which include a) the expected doublet power (MWth) to be retrieved; b) the number of houses or hectares that can be heated from one doublet; and c) a potential indicator map, which provides insight in subsurface suitability for specific applications from a techno-economic perspective. To obtain a nationwide overview of the resource potential in terms of recoverable geothermal energy, a progressive filtering approach was used from total heat content of the reservoirs (Heat In Place – HIP) via the heat that can potentially be recovered (Potential Recovery Heat – PRH) to energy maps taking into account a techno-economic performance evaluation (Recoverable Heat – RH). Results show that the HIP is approximately 820,000 PJ which is significantly more than previous estimates of around 90,000 PJ. This considerable increase in geothermal energy potential is the result of accurate geological mapping of key reservoir properties and the development of state-of-the-art techno-economic performance assessment tools that performs Monte Carlo simulation. Moreover, for the previous estimates boundary conditions were set with the aim to compare the geothermal potential between different EU countries (Rijkers & Van Doorn, 1997). Taking into account techno-economic aspects, the RH is in the order of 85,000 PJ. This is equivalent to ~70% of the ultimate recoverable gas of the Slochteren Gas field. In total over 400 maps have been created or used as input for the resource assessment. Together, they provide comprehensive information for geothermal energy development from various stakeholder perspectives. The maps can be interactively assessed in the web-based portal ThermoGIS (www.thermogis.nl). This application complements existing subsurface information systems available in the Netherlands and supports the geothermal community in assessing the feasibility of a geothermal system on a regional scale.
Geothermal low enthalpy heat in non-magmatic areas can be produced by pumping hot water from aquifers at large depth (>1 km). Key parameters for aquifer performance are temperature, depth, thickness and permeability. Geothermal exploration in the Netherlands can benefit considerably from the wealth of oil and gas data; in many cases hydrocarbon reservoirs form the lateral equivalent of geothermal aquifers. In the past decades subsurface oil and gas data have been used to develop 3D models of the subsurface structure. These models have been used as a starting point for the mapping of geothermal reservoir geometries and its properties. A workflow was developed to map aquifer properties on a regional scale. Transmissivity maps and underlying uncertainty have been obtained for 20 geothermal aquifers. Of particular importance is to take into account corrections for maximum burial depth and the assessment of uncertainties. The mapping of transmissivity and temperature shows favorable aquifer conditions in the northern part of the Netherlands (Rotliegend aquifers), while in the western and southern parts of the Netherlands aquifers of the Triassic and Upper Cretaceous / Jurassic have high prospectivity. Despite the high transmissivity of the Cenozoic aquifers, the limited depth and temperature reduce the prospective geothermal area significantly.The results show a considerable remaining uncertainty of transmissivity values, due to lack of data and heterogeneous spatial data distribution.In part these uncertainties may be significantly reduced by adding well test results and facies parameters for the map interpolation in future work.For underexplored areas this bears a significant risk, but it can also result in much higher flowrates than originally expected, representing an upside in project performance.
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