Recruitment from seeds is among the most vulnerable stage for plants as global temperatures change. While germination is the means by which the vast majority of the world's flora regenerate naturally, a framework for accurately predicting which species are at greatest risk of germination failure during environmental perturbation is lacking. Taking a physiological approach, we assess how one family, the Cactaceae, may respond to global temperature change based on the thermal buffering capacity of the germination phenotype. We selected 55 cactus species from the Americas, all geo-referenced seed collections, reflecting the broad environmental envelope of the family across 70° of latitude and 3700 m of altitude. We then generated empirical data of the thermal germination response from which we estimated the minimum (T ), optimum (T ) and ceiling (T ) temperature for germination and the thermal time (θ ) for each species based on the linearity of germination rate with temperature. Species with the highest T and lowest T germinated fastest, and the interspecific sensitivity of the germination rate to temperature, as assessed through θ , varied tenfold. A left-skewed asymmetry in the germination rate with temperature was relatively common but the unimodal pattern typical of crop species failed for nearly half of the species due to insensitivity to temperature change at T . For 32 fully characterized species, seed thermal parameters correlated strongly with the mean temperature of the wettest quarter of the seed collection sites. By projecting the mean temperature of the wettest quarter under two climate change scenarios, we predict under the least conservative scenario (+3.7°C) that 25% of cactus species will have reduced germination performance, whilst the remainder will have an efficiency gain, by the end of the 21st century.

No abstract

Fluctuating asymmetry (FA), the deviation from the normal symmetrical condition of a morphological trait having specific morphological symmetry, increases in response to environmental and genetic stress, is related to phenotypic plasticity and is considered a tool for monitoring a species conservation status. However, FA-stress relations are dependent on measured traits or species-specific characteristics such as mating system and habitat. This study investigates the relationships between FA, genetic diversity, population size, density and individual fitness traits (plant height, fruit and seed set), in the endemic Aquilegia thalictrifolia, a mixed breeder that is declining, but maintaining high levels of heterozygosity. Leaf and flower FA and other traits were investigated in 10 populations of A. thalictrifolia, the whole species range. As a result, we found similar patterns of FA in leaves and flowers between populations, indicating a homogenous level of stress between populations that differed for other traits. FA and the other traits were not related, including heterozygosity. Heterozygosity was not related to individual fitness traits with the exception of plant height. In accordance with other studies, we found that the role of FA as a tool for assessing the conservation status of a species or population should be reconsidered. However, we conclude that a low level of FA should not automatically be considered an indicator of good conservation status or low level of stress, because in species that evolved in highly stable environments it may indicate a scarce ability to plastically respond to environmental changes, as a consequence of environmental and genetic canalization. Further investigation of this point is needed.

No abstract

No abstract