Biological impacts of climate warming are predicted to increase with latitude, paralleling increases in warming. However, the magnitude of impacts depends not only on the degree of warming but also on the number of species at risk, their physiological sensitivity to warming and their options for behavioural and physiological compensation. Lizards are useful for evaluating risks of warming because their thermal biology is well studied. We conducted macrophysiological analyses of diurnal lizards from diverse latitudes plus focal species analyses of Puerto Rican Anolis and Sphaerodactyus. Although tropical lowland lizards live in environments that are warm all year, macrophysiological analyses indicate that some tropical lineages (thermoconformers that live in forests) are active at low body temperature and are intolerant of warm temperatures. Focal species analyses show that some tropical forest lizards were already experiencing stressful body temperatures in summer when studied several decades ago. Simulations suggest that warming will not only further depress their physiological performance in summer, but will also enable warm-adapted, open-habitat competitors and predators to invade forests. Forest lizards are key components of tropical ecosystems, but appear vulnerable to the cascading physiological and ecological effects of climate warming, even though rates of tropical warming may be relatively low.
Reports of declining amphibian populations in many parts of the world are numerous, but supporting long-term census data are generally unavailable. Census data from 1979 to 1990 for three salamander species and one frog species at a breeding pond in South Carolina showed fluctuations of substantial magnitude in both the size of breeding populations and in recruitment of juveniles. Breeding population sizes exhibited no overall trend in three species and increased in the fourth. Recent droughts account satisfactorily for an increase in recruitment failures. These data illustrate that to distinguish between natural population fluctuations and declines with anthropogenic causes may require long-term studies.
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