Summary Background Elevated blood pressure and glucose, serum cholesterol, and body mass index (BMI) are risk factors for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs); some of these factors also increase the risk of chronic kidney disease (CKD) and diabetes. We estimated CVD, CKD, and diabetes mortality attributable to these four cardio-metabolic risk factors for all countries and regions between 1980 and 2010. Methods We used data on risk factor exposure by country, age group, and sex from pooled analysis of population-based health surveys. Relative risks for cause-specific mortality were obtained from pooling of large prospective studies. We calculated the population attributable fractions (PAF) for each risk factor alone, and for the combination of all risk factors, accounting for multi-causality and for mediation of the effects of BMI by the other three risks. We calculated attributable deaths by multiplying the cause-specific PAFs by the number of disease-specific deaths from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2010 Study. We propagated the uncertainties of all inputs to the final estimates. Findings In 2010, high blood pressure was the leading risk factor for dying from CVDs, CKD, and diabetes in every region, causing over 40% of worldwide deaths from these diseases; high BMI and glucose were each responsible for about 15% of deaths; and cholesterol for 10%. After accounting for multi-causality, 63% (10.8 million deaths; 95% confidence interval 10.1–11.5) of deaths from these diseases were attributable to the combined effect of these four metabolic risk factors, compared with 67% (7.1 million deaths; 6.6–7.6) in 1980. The mortality burden of high BMI and glucose nearly doubled between 1980 and 2010. At the country level, age-standardised death rates attributable to these four risk factors surpassed 925 deaths per 100,000 among men in Belarus, Mongolia, and Kazakhstan, but were below 130 deaths per 100,000 for women and below 200 for men in some high-income countries like Japan, Singapore, South Korea, France, Spain, The Netherlands, Australia, and Canada. Interpretations The salient features of the cardio-metabolic epidemic at the beginning of the twenty-first century are the large role of high blood pressure and an increasing impact of obesity and diabetes. There has been a shift in the mortality burden from high-income to low- and middle-income countries.

OBJECTIVE -To provide a simple clinical diabetes risk score and to identify characteristics that predict later diabetes using variables available in the clinic setting as well as biological variables and polymorphisms.RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS -Incident diabetes was studied in 1,863 men and 1,954 women, 30 -65 years of age at baseline, with diabetes defined by treatment or by fasting plasma glucose Ն7.0 mmol/l at 3-yearly examinations over 9 years. Sex-specific logistic regression equations were used to select variables for prediction.RESULTS -A total of 140 men and 63 women developed diabetes. The predictive clinical variables were waist circumference and hypertension in both sexes, smoking in men, and diabetes in the family in women. Discrimination, as measured by the area under the receiver operating curves (AROCs), were 0.713 for men and 0.827 for women, a little higher than for the Finish Diabetes Risk (FINDRISC) score, with fewer variables in the score. Combining clinical and biological variables, the predictive equation included fasting glucose, waist circumference, smoking, and ␥-glutamyltransferase for men and fasting glucose, BMI, triglycerides, and diabetes in family for women. The number of TCF7L2 and IL6 deleterious alleles was predictive in both sexes, but after including the above clinical and biological variables, this variable was only predictive in women (P Ͻ 0.03) and the AROC statistics increased only marginally.CONCLUSIONS -The best clinical predictor of diabetes is adiposity, and baseline glucose is the best biological predictor. Clinical and biological predictors differed marginally between men and women. The genetic polymorphisms added little to the prediction of diabetes.

OBJECTIVEWater intake alters vasopressin secretion. Recent findings reveal an independent association between plasma copeptin, a surrogate for vasopressin, and risk of diabetes.RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODSParticipants were 3,615 middle-aged men and women, with normal baseline fasting glycemia (FG), who were recruited in a 9-year follow-up study. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CIs for the incidence of hyperglycemia (FG ≥6.1 mmol/L or treatment for diabetes) were calculated according to daily water intake classes based on a self-administered questionnaire.RESULTSDuring follow-up, there were 565 incident cases of hyperglycemia. After adjustment for confounding factors, ORs (95% CIs) for hyperglycemia associated with classes of water intake (<0.5 L, n = 677; 0.5 to <1.0 L, n = 1,754; and >1.0 L, n = 1,184) were 1.00, 0.68 (0.52–0.89), and 0.79 (0.59–1.05), respectively (P = 0.016).CONCLUSIONSSelf-reported water intake was inversely and independently associated with the risk of developing hyperglycemia.

This study in a normal population, the largest ever with measurements of both peptides, shows that copeptin and vasopressin concentrations correlated well. But their relationship is distorted in CKD, suggesting that the peptide clearances differ when the renal function is impaired.