Indonesia's trade policy has evolved over the last 50 years. It has been influenced by the country's level of development and the conflict between openness and protectionism; external developments, such as commodity booms and busts and increased competition; and international commitments, whether multilateral or regional. As a result, trade policy has often been ambivalent and ineffective. Given that Indonesia has undergone various transformations and that the world is a different place from what it was in 1965, the country needs to take a more pragmatic and forward-looking stance. Trade policy needs to be part of a comprehensive strategy to improve competitiveness and diversify exports. If Indonesia is to be part of the new paradigm, where the production of goods and services is based on production networks and global value chains, its policy focus will need to shift from protecting and favouring sectors to promoting trade and industrial policies that encourage the flow of goods, services, and people.

This paper uses a product-level gravity approach to estimate the effect of ASEAN's product-specific rules of origin (ROOs) on regional trade, using original data on rules applicable at the six-digit level of the harmonized system. We find that the average tariff ad valorem equivalent (AVE) of ASEAN's ROOs is 3.40 percent across all instruments and sectors. The trade-weighted average is 2.09 percent. This moderate estimate is in line with the existing literature. We also find fairly high AVEs for some sectors, however, including leather, textile and apparel, footwear, and automobiles. Additionally, we find that some rules appear more restrictive than others; in this regard, the textile rule seems to stand out as a relatively more trade-inhibiting rule than others.

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