Flood damage functions are necessary to ensure comprehensive flood-risk management. This study attempts to establish a residential flood-damage function through interviewing the residents living in the region where flood disasters occur frequently. Keelung River basin, near Taipei Metropolitan in Taiwan was selected as study area. Flood damages are related to the flood depths, which are the most commonly considered factor in previously published work. Ordinary least squares (OLS) regression was used to construct the flood-damage function at the beginning. Analytical results indicate that flood depth is the significant variable, but the spatial pattern of the residuals shows that residuals exhibit spatial autocorrelation. The Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) Model was then applied to modify the traditional regression model, which cannot capture spatial variations, and to reduce the problem of spatial autocorrelation. The R-square value was found to increase from 0.15 to 0.24, and the spatial autocorrelation in the residuals was no longer evident. A modified OLS model with a dummy variable to capture the spatial autocorrelation pattern was also proposed for future applications. In conclusion, the residential flood damage is determined by flood depth and zone, and the GWR model not only captures the spatial variations of the affecting factors, but also helps to discover the independent variable to modify the traditional regression model.
The development with filling method might increase the flood risk and damage in the surrounding areas, especially in low-lying areas. The objective of this study was to develop a methodology to assess the damage of flood risk transfer effect on surrounding areas. We studied a development located in Tainan, Taiwan and applied a SOBEK model to analyze the transfer effect of flood risk, and calculated the amount of loss in the surrounding land. After land development, the risk of flooding in the development zone declined. However, the risk of flooding in the southern area of the development zone increased. The development of land changed the original decentralized drainage system to centralized drainage system. The peak outflow discharge of surface runoff increased so much that it was more than the flow capacity of the downstream channel. This resulted in transferring the flood risk to the surrounding areas. Direct losses due to floods for industrial, commercial, residential, and agricultural lands as well as public facilities were calculated by the flood damage curves. Indirect losses were estimated using the industry-related model. The expected annual damages before and after land development in the southern area of the development zone
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