Background: Many countries in the world are still struggling to control COVID-19 pandemic. As of April 28, 2020, South Africa reported the highest number of COVID-19 cases in Sub-Sahara Africa. The country took aggressive steps to control the spread of the virus including setting a national command team for COVID-19 and putting the country on a complete lockdown for more than 100 days. Evidence across most countries has shown that, it is vital to monitor the progression of pandemics and assess the effects of various public health measures, such as lockdowns. Countries need to have scientific tools to assist in monitoring and assessing the effectiveness of mitigation interventions. The objective of this study was thus to assess the extent to which a systems dynamics model can forecast COVID-19 infections in South Africa and be a useful tool in evaluating government interventions to manage the epidemic through ‘what if’ simulations.Design and Methods: This study presents a systems dynamics model (SD) of the COVID-19 infection in South Africa, as one of such tools. The development of the SD model in this study is grounded in design science research which fundamentally builds on prior research of modelling complex systems.Results: The SD model satisfactorily replicates the general trend of COVID-19 infections and recovery for South Africa within the first 100 days of the pandemic. The model further confirms that the decision to lockdown the country was a right one, otherwise the country’s health capacity would have been overwhelmed. Going forward, the model predicts that the level of infection in the country will peak towards the last quarter of 2020, and thereafter start to decline. Conclusions: Ultimately, the model structure and simulations suggest that a systems dynamics model can be a useful tool in monitoring, predicting and testing interventions to manage COVID-19 with an acceptable margin of error. Moreover, the model can be developed further to include more variables as more facts on the COVID-19 emerge.

In this study, a mathematical model for studying the dynamics of monkeypox virus transmission with non-pharmaceutical intervention is created, examined, and simulated using real-time data. Positiveness, invariance, and boundedness of the solutions are thus examined as fundamental features of mathematical models. The equilibrium points and the prerequisites for their stability are achieved. The basic reproduction number and thus the virus transmission coefficient ℜ0 were determined and quantitatively used to study the global stability of the model's steady state. Furthermore, this study considered the sensitivity analysis of the parameters according to ℜ0. The most sensitive variables that are important for infection control are determined using the normalized forward sensitivity index. Data from the United Kingdom collected between May and August 2022, which also aid in demonstrating the usefulness and practical application of the model to the spread of the disease in the United Kingdom, were used. In addition, using the Caputo–Fabrizio operator, Krasnoselskii's fixed point theorem has been used to analyze the existence and uniqueness of the solutions to the suggested model. The numerical simulations are presented to assess the system dynamic behavior. More vulnerability was observed when monkeypox virus cases first appeared recently as a result of numerical calculations. We advise the policymakers to consider these elements to control monkeypox transmission. Based on these findings, we hypothesized that another control parameter could be the memory index or fractional order.

During the early months of the global pandemic the international Disability Rights Monitor group survey illustrated the circumstances of persons with disabilities around the world. Gradually literature on the situation for persons with disabilities in sub-Saharan Africa started to emerge. As members of an informal network looking at issues affecting this group, some of the authors of this report realised that much of the research done was not specifically focusing on their perceptions during the pandemic and that it was not using the WG-SS questions. Having noticed a gap in the type of data being collected by other scholars and the media, this small informal network identified a need for a survey that would look at both experiences and perceptions of persons with disabilities focussing on lived experiences of socioeconomic impacts and access to human rights during the pandemic in South Africa. This report summarises some of the key findings of the study, which was conducted on-line using Google Forms from the 1 July to 31 August 2021. All percentages displayed are rounded to the nearest percent and this may affect what is displayed in charts. While we cite some literature in this report, a separate literature review was written by the team, and was used to guide the research and focus the questions.

Background: People with disabilities are a large, disadvantaged minority, comprising approximately 12% of the population. The South African government has ratified international and regional disability treaties but deals with disability rights within general anti-discrimination legislation. There are no specific frameworks to monitor justice for people with disabilities. The study aims to inform further development of disability inclusive mechanisms relating to crises including pandemics.Objectives: This study explored the perceptions of South Africans with disabilities, to understand their experiences during coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), focussing on socioeconomic, well-being and human rights aspects.Method: An online survey tool generated quantitative and qualitative data. Widespread publicity and broad recruitment were achieved through project partners networks. Participants responded via mobile phone and/or online platforms.Results: Nearly 2000 people responded, representing different genders, impairments, races, socio-economic status, education and ages. Findings include: (1) negative economic and emotional impacts, (2) a lack of inclusive and accessible information, (3) reduced access to services, (4) uncertainty about government and non-government agencies' support and ( 5) exacerbation of pre-existing disadvantages. These findings echo international predictions of COVID-19 disproportionally impacting people with disabilities. Conclusion:The evidence reveals that people with disabilities in South Africa experienced many negative impacts of the pandemic. Strategies to control the virus largely ignored attending to human rights and socioeconomic well-being of this marginalised group. Contribution:The evidence will inform the development of the national monitoring framework, recognised by the South African Government and emphasised by the United Nations as necessary to ensure the realisation of the rights of people with disabilities during future crises including pandemics.