The design of critical facilities needs a targeted computation of the expected ground motion levels. The Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) is the pipeline that transports natural gas from the Greek-Turkish border, through Greece and Albania, to Italy. We present here the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) that we performed for this facility, and the deaggregation of the results, aiming to identify the dominant seismic sources for a selected site along the Albanian coast, where one of the two main compressor stations is located. PSHA is based on an articulated logic tree of twenty branches, consisting of two models for source, seismicity, estimation of the maximum magnitude, and ground motion. The area with the highest hazard occurs along the Adriatic coast of Albania (PGA between 0.8 and 0.9 g on rock for a return period of 2475 years), while strong ground motions are also expected to the north of Thessaloniki, Kavala, in the southern Alexandroupolis area, as well as at the border between Greece and Turkey. The earthquakes contributing most to the hazard of the test site at high and low frequencies (1 and 5 Hz) and the corresponding design events for the TAP infrastructure have been identified as local quakes with MW 6.6 and 6.0, respectively.

In recent years, new approaches for developing earthquake rupture forecasts (ERFs) have been proposed to be used as an input for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). Zone- based approaches with seismicity rates derived from earthquake catalogs are commonly used in many countries as the standard for national seismic hazard models. In Italy, a single zone- based ERF is currently the basis for the official seismic hazard model. In this contribution, we present eleven new ERFs, including five zone-based, two smoothed seismicity-based, two fault- based, and two geodetic-based, used for a new PSH model in Italy. The ERFs were tested against observed seismicity and were subject to an elicitation procedure by a panel of PSHA experts to verify the scientific robustness and consistency of the forecasts with respect to the observations. Tests and elicitation were finalized to weight the ERFs. The results show a good response to the new inputs to observed seismicity in the last few centuries. The entire approach was a first attempt to build a community-based set of ERFs for an Italian PSHA model. The project involved a large number of seismic hazard practitioners, with their knowledge and experience, and the development of different models to capture and explore a large range of epistemic uncertainties in building ERFs, and represents an important step forward for the new national seismic hazard model.

The relation between macroseismic intensity and ground shaking makes it possible to transform instrumental Ground Motion Parameters (GMPs) in macroseismic intensity and vice versa, and is therefore useful for making comparisons between estimates of seismic hazard determined in terms of GMPs and macroseismic intensity, and for other engineering and seismological applications. Empirical relationships between macroseismic intensity and different recorded GMPs for the Italian territory are presented in this paper. The coefficients are calibrated using a dataset of horizontal geometrical mean GMPs, i.e. peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, spectral acceleration at 0.2, 0.3, 1.0 and 2.0 s from the ITalian ACcelerometric Archive (ITACA; Luzi et al. in Italian Accelerometric Archive v3.0, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Dipartimento della Protezione Civile Nazionale, 2019.

Summary To constrain seismic anisotropy under and around the Alps in Europe, we study SKS shear-wave splitting from the region densely covered by the AlpArray seismic network. We apply a technique based on measuring the splitting intensity, constraining well both the fast orientation and the splitting delay. 4 years of teleseismic earthquake data were processed, from 723 temporary and permanent broadband stations of the AlpArray deployment including ocean-bottom seismometers, providing a spatial coverage that is unprecedented. The technique is applied automatically (without human intervention), and it thus provides a reproducible image of anisotropic structure in and around the Alpine region. As in earlier studies, we observe a coherent rotation of fast axes in the western part of the Alpine chain, and a region of homogeneous fast orientation in the Central Alps. The spatial variation of splitting delay times is particularly interesting though. On one hand, there is a clear positive correlation with Alpine topography, suggesting that part of the seismic anisotropy (deformation) is caused by the Alpine orogeny. On the other hand, anisotropic strength around the mountain chain shows a distinct contrast between the Western and Eastern Alps. This difference is best explained by the more active mantle flow around the Western Alps. The new observational constraints, especially the splitting delay, provide new information on Alpine geodynamics.

SUMMARY We infer seismic azimuthal anisotropy from ambient-noise-derived Rayleigh waves in the wider Vienna Basin region. Cross-correlations of the ambient seismic field are computed for 1953 station pairs and periods from 5 to 25 s to measure the directional dependence of interstation Rayleigh-wave group velocities. We perform the analysis for each period on the whole data set, as well as in overlapping 2°-cells to regionalize the measurements, to study expected effects from isotropic structure, and isotropic–anisotropic trade-offs. To extract azimuthal anisotropy that relates to the anisotropic structure of the Earth, we analyse the group velocity residuals after isotropic inversion. The periods discussed in this study (5–20 s) are sensitive to crustal structure, and they allow us to gain insight into two distinct mechanisms that result in fast orientations. At shallow crustal depths, fast orientations in the Eastern Alps are S/N to SSW/NNE, roughly normal to the Alps. This effect is most likely due to the formation of cracks aligned with the present-day stress-field. At greater depths, fast orientations rotate towards NE, almost parallel to the major fault systems that accommodated the lateral extrusion of blocks in the Miocene. This is coherent with the alignment of crystal grains during crustal deformation occurring along the fault systems and the lateral extrusion of the central part of the Eastern Alps.