The study aims to investigate the factors that are associated with fatal and severe vehicle–pedestrian crashes in Great Britain by developing four parametric models and five non-parametric tools to predict the crash severity. Even though the models have already been applied to model the pedestrian injury severity, a comparative analysis to assess the predictive power of such modeling techniques is limited. Hence, this study contributes to the road safety literature by comparing the models by their capabilities of identifying the significant explanatory variables, and by their performances in terms of the F-measure, the G-mean, and the area under curve. The analyses were carried out using data that refer to the vehicle–pedestrian crashes that occurred in the period of 2016–2018. The parametric models confirm their advantages in offering easy-to-interpret outputs and understandable relations between the dependent and independent variables, whereas the non-parametric tools exhibited higher classification accuracies, identified more explanatory variables, and provided insights into the interdependencies among the factors. The study results suggest that the combined use of parametric and non-parametric methods may effectively overcome the limits of each group of methods, with satisfactory prediction accuracies and the interpretation of the factors contributing to fatal and serious crashes. In the conclusion, several engineering, social, and management pedestrian safety countermeasures are recommended.
This study investigated, by means of a dynamic driving simulator experiment, road users’ behavior inside the curves of rural two-lane highways related to different advance warning signs, perceptual measures, and delineation treatments. These treatments were intended to warn drivers of the presence of low radius curves and to affect their behavior, improving vehicle control and lane-keeping. Five surrogate measures of safety were used in the evaluation of the design alternatives in relation to lateral position performance: standard deviation of lateral position, maximum encroachment in the shoulder, maximum encroachment in the opposite lane, relative length of shoulder encroachment, and relative length of opposite lane encroachment. Statistical tests were performed to verify whether the surrogate measures of safety were significantly different between alternatives. The analysis was divided into three phases. In the first phase, all the measures were preprocessed, testing normality and homoscedasticity assumptions. In the second phase, the presence of an overall effect considering all the alternatives was evaluated using analysis of variance and the Kruskal–Wallis test. In the third phase, Student’s t- and Mann–Whitney tests were used to assess which alternatives showed statistically significant effects. The results demonstrated that the perceptual measures, namely colored transverse strips, dragon teeth markings, and colored median island, were the most effective treatments. Field tests to establish the perceptual measures’ effectiveness on real roads are strongly advised. Implementation of the measures tested in the driving simulator should be carried out on similar rural highways to validate the results.
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