Identifying neurobiological differences between patients with major depressive disorder (MDD) and healthy individuals has been a mainstay of clinical neuroscience for decades. However, recent meta-analyses have raised concerns regarding the replicability and clinical relevance of brain alterations in depression.OBJECTIVE To quantify the upper bounds of univariate effect sizes, estimated predictive utility, and distributional dissimilarity of healthy individuals and those with depression across structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), diffusion-tensor imaging, and functional task-based as well as resting-state MRI, and to compare results with an MDD polygenic risk score (PRS) and environmental variables. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTSThis was a cross-sectional, case-control clinical neuroimaging study. Data were part of the Marburg-Münster Affective Disorders Cohort Study. Patients with depression and healthy controls were recruited from primary care and the general population in Münster and Marburg, Germany. Study recruitment was performed from September 11, 2014, to September 26, 2018. The sample comprised patients with acute and chronic MDD as well as healthy controls in the age range of 18 to 65 years. Data were analyzed from October 29, 2020, to April 7, 2022.MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Primary analyses included univariate partial effect size (η 2 ), classification accuracy, and distributional overlapping coefficient for healthy individuals and those with depression across neuroimaging modalities, controlling for age, sex, and additional modality-specific confounding variables. Secondary analyses included patient subgroups for acute or chronic depressive status.RESULTS A total of 1809 individuals (861 patients [47.6%] and 948 controls [52.4%]) were included in the analysis (mean [SD] age, 35.6 [13.2] years; 1165 female patients [64.4%]). The upper bound of the effect sizes of the single univariate measures displaying the largest group difference ranged from partial η 2 of 0.004 to 0.017, and distributions overlapped between 87% and 95%, with classification accuracies ranging between 54% and 56% across neuroimaging modalities. This pattern remained virtually unchanged when considering either only patients with acute or chronic depression. Differences were comparable with those found for PRS but substantially smaller than for environmental variables.CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Results of this case-control study suggest that even for maximum univariate biological differences, deviations between patients with MDD and healthy controls were remarkably small, single-participant prediction was not possible, and similarity between study groups dominated. Biological psychiatry should facilitate meaningful outcome measures or predictive approaches to increase the potential for a personalization of the clinical practice.

Neuroanatomical abnormalities have been reported along a continuum from at-risk stages, including high schizotypy, to early and chronic psychosis. However, a comprehensive neuroanatomical mapping of schizotypy remains to be established. The authors conducted the first large-scale meta-analyses of cortical and subcortical morphometric patterns of schizotypy in healthy individuals, and compared these patterns with neuroanatomical abnormalities observed in major psychiatric disorders. The sample comprised 3004 unmedicated healthy individuals (12–68 years, 46.5% male) from 29 cohorts of the worldwide ENIGMA Schizotypy working group. Cortical and subcortical effect size maps with schizotypy scores were generated using standardized methods. Pattern similarities were assessed between the schizotypy-related cortical and subcortical maps and effect size maps from comparisons of schizophrenia (SZ), bipolar disorder (BD) and major depression (MDD) patients with controls. Thicker right medial orbitofrontal/ventromedial prefrontal cortex (mOFC/vmPFC) was associated with higher schizotypy scores (r = 0.067, pFDR = 0.02). The cortical thickness profile in schizotypy was positively correlated with cortical abnormalities in SZ (r = 0.285, pspin = 0.024), but not BD (r = 0.166, pspin = 0.205) or MDD (r = −0.274, pspin = 0.073). The schizotypy-related subcortical volume pattern was negatively correlated with subcortical abnormalities in SZ (rho = −0.690, pspin = 0.006), BD (rho = −0.672, pspin = 0.009), and MDD (rho = −0.692, pspin = 0.004). Comprehensive mapping of schizotypy-related brain morphometry in the general population revealed a significant relationship between higher schizotypy and thicker mOFC/vmPFC, in the absence of confounding effects due to antipsychotic medication or disease chronicity. The cortical pattern similarity between schizotypy and schizophrenia yields new insights into a dimensional neurobiological continuity across the extended psychosis phenotype.

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