Abstract. A geostatistical conditional simulation routine that employs both parametric and nonparametric geostatistics is coupled to the pilot point inverse method to simulate the spatial distribution of conductivities in a dolomitic aquifer which is fractured in some areas and unfractured in others. An inversion is then conducted to obtain the conductivities within the fractured and nonfractured parts of the aquifer to match interference data from a series of three-dimensional pumping tests for an ensemble of 100 conditional simulations. The calibrated and predicted drawdowns match the observed drawdowns well. A comparison to the transmissivity interpreted from a single-well pumping test compared very well to the geometric mean transmissivity calculated from the calibrated realizations in this study. The results from this study indicate that conditioning the conductivity fields to the geologic facies data, in this case fractured-unfractured categorical data, as well as to ample transient hydraulic data can lead to robust groundwater flow models which can adequately predict the response to other hydraulic interference tests.

This work presents an efficient mathematical/numerical model to compute the sensitivity coefficients of a predefined performance measure to model parameters for one‐dimensional steady‐state sequentially coupled radionuclide transport in a finite heterogeneous porous medium. The model is based on the adjoint sensitivity approach that offers an elegant and computationally efficient alternative way to compute the sensitivity coefficients. The transport parameters include the radionuclide retardation factors due to sorption, the Darcy velocity, and the effective diffusion/dispersion coefficients. Both continuous and discrete adjoint approaches are considered. The partial differential equations associated with the adjoint system are derived based on the adjoint state theory for coupled problems. Physical interpretations of the adjoint states are given in analogy to results obtained in the theory of groundwater flow. For the homogeneous case, analytical solutions for primary and adjoint systems are derived and presented in closed forms. Numerically calculated solutions are compared to the analytical results and show excellent agreements. Insights from sensitivity analysis are discussed to get a better understanding of the values of sensitivity coefficients. The sensitivity coefficients are also computed numerically by finite differences. The numerical sensitivity coefficients successfully reproduce the analytically derived sensitivities based on adjoint states. A derivative‐based global sensitivity method coupled with the adjoint state method is presented and applied to a real field case represented by a site currently being considered for underground nuclear storage in Northern Switzerland, “Zürich Nordost”, to demonstrate the proposed method. The results show the advantage of the adjoint state method compared to other methods in term of computational effort.

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We present an efficient mathematical/numerical adjoint sensitivity analysis model for transient radionuclide transport through heterogeneous porous media. This work extends our previous research on radionuclide transport in a steady‐state regime. Both continuous and discrete adjoint approaches have been developed in this current research. The mathematical equations associated with the adjoint system and required for the continuous approach have been derived. The methodology for deriving the discrete adjoint solution is also presented. For the homogeneous case, the adjoint system for radionuclide decay chain is solved analytically. The four‐member decay chain (238Pu → 234U → 230Th → 226Ra) is considered for validation. The validity of the analytical adjoint sensitivity model has been shown using two illustrative examples associated with two performance measures. The analytical adjoint states are compared with calculated numerical results and show excellent agreements. The sensitivity coefficients are also computed numerically using the perturbation method. The numerical sensitivity coefficients successfully reproduce the analytically derived sensitivities based on adjoint states. The adjoint model has been coupled with a derivative‐based global sensitivity method and applied to a real field case involving the performance assessment of a site currently being considered for underground nuclear storage in northern Switzerland, Zürich Nordost. An illustrative case study of spent fuel and high‐level waste (SF/HLW) repository involving 6 radionuclides and 48 parameters has been considered for identifying the most important parameters with respect to the maximum radionuclide dose at the interface geosphere/biosphere. Based on the results of sensitivity analysis, the uncertainty of the maximum radionuclide dose has been performed using Monte Carlo simulations.