Trends in meteorological and ecological variables were calculated across the state of Wisconsin from 1950 to 2006 to quantify recent patterns of climate change. In summary, annual average nighttime low temperatures have increased by 0.6 to 2.2º C, whereas the annual average daytime high temperatures have warmed by 0.3 to 0.6º C. Annual average precipitation has increased by 50-100 mm in the central and southern portions of the state, about a 10-15% increase, while precipitation across the far northern portion of the state appears to have declined by 20-60 mm since 1950, with the most pronounced decrease occurring during summer. On a seasonal basis, warming temperatures are more pronounced during winter and springtime, and nighttime temperatures are warming faster than daytime high temperatures. Some cooling trends in daytime high temperatures were observed during late summer and fall, particularly in the northeast and far southwest portions of the state. We calculated that the length of the growing season has increased by 5 to 20 days, with the greatest change in the central and northern part of Wisconsin. The annual number of days each year with low temperatures less than 0º F (-17.8º C) has diminished substantially, while the number of days each year with highs greater than 90ºF (32.2º C) has remained relatively constant. A slight shift northward of the ecological "Tension Zone" was also documented. [

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ABSTRACT. Agricultural watersheds are affected by changes in climate, land use, agricultural practices, and human demand for energy, food, and water resources. In this context, we analyzed the agricultural, urbanizing Yahara watershed (size: 1345 km², population: 372,000) to assess its responses to multiple changing drivers. We measured recent trends in land use/cover and water quality of the watershed, spatial patterns of 10 ecosystem services, and spatial patterns and nestedness of governance. We developed scenarios for the future of the Yahara watershed by integrating trends and events from the global scenarios literature, perspectives of stakeholders, and models of biophysical drivers and ecosystem services. Four qualitative scenarios were created to explore plausible trajectories to the year 2070 in the watershed's social-ecological system under different regimes: no action on environmental trends, accelerated technological development, strong intervention by government, and shifting values toward sustainability. Quantitative time-series for 2010-2070 were developed for weather and land use/cover during each scenario as inputs to model changes in ecosystem services. Ultimately, our goal is to understand how changes in the social-ecological system of the Yahara watershed, including management of land and water resources, can build or impair resilience to shifting drivers, including climate.

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Miscanthus is an intriguing cellulosic bioenergy feedstock because its aboveground productivity is high for low amounts of agrochemical inputs, but soil temperatures below −3.5°C could threaten successful cultivation in temperate regions. We used a combination of observed soil temperatures and the Agro-IBIS model to investigate how strategic residue management could reduce the risk of rhizome threatening soil temperatures. This objective was addressed using a historical (1978–2007) reconstruction of extreme minimum 10 cm soil temperatures experienced across the Midwest US and model sensitivity studies that quantified the impact of crop residue on soil temperatures. At observation sites and for simulations that had bare soil, two critical soil temperature thresholds (50% rhizome winterkill at −3.5°C and −6.0°C for different Miscanthus genotypes) were reached at rhizome planting depth (10 cm) over large geographic areas. The coldest average annual extreme 10 cm soil temperatures were between −8°C to −11°C across North Dakota, South Dakota, and Minnesota. Large portions of the region experienced 10 cm soil temperatures below −3.5°C in 75% or greater for all years, and portions of North and South Dakota, Minnesota, and Wisconsin experienced soil temperatures below −6.0°C in 50–60% of all years. For simulated management options that established varied thicknesses (1–5 cm) of miscanthus straw following harvest, extreme minimum soil temperatures increased by 2.5°C to 6°C compared to bare soil, with the greatest warming associated with thicker residue layers. While the likelihood of 10 cm soil temperatures reaching −3.5°C was greatly reduced with 2–5 cm of surface residue, portions of the Dakotas, Nebraska, Minnesota, and Wisconsin still experienced temperatures colder than −3.5°C in 50–80% of all years. Nonetheless, strategic residue management could help increase the likelihood of overwintering of miscanthus rhizomes in the first few years after establishment, although low productivity and biomass availability during these early stages could hamper such efforts.